Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS show the overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 7 stabilizing near 16°C under partly cloudy skies with southwest winds, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for that threshold. This reflects above-average warmth for early September, where the long-term mean low sits around 11–12°C, as the region experiences lingering summer-like conditions with daytime highs reaching 26–27°C. Official monitoring confirms recent daily lows near 14–17°C, supporting trader consensus on limited cooling potential overnight. A stronger-than-expected northerly flow or localized measurement variance at the Schiphol station could still push readings to 15°C, though model agreement and current pressure patterns make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
16°C 96%
14°C 5%
15°C 5%
13°C 2%
$999 Vol.
$999 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
5%
16°C
96%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 96%
14°C 5%
15°C 5%
13°C 2%
$999 Vol.
$999 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
11°C or below
$40 Vol.
1%
12°C
$50 Vol.
1%
13°C
$25 Vol.
2%
14°C
$72 Vol.
5%
15°C
$91 Vol.
5%
16°C
$476 Vol.
96%
17°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS show the overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 7 stabilizing near 16°C under partly cloudy skies with southwest winds, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for that threshold. This reflects above-average warmth for early September, where the long-term mean low sits around 11–12°C, as the region experiences lingering summer-like conditions with daytime highs reaching 26–27°C. Official monitoring confirms recent daily lows near 14–17°C, supporting trader consensus on limited cooling potential overnight. A stronger-than-expected northerly flow or localized measurement variance at the Schiphol station could still push readings to 15°C, though model agreement and current pressure patterns make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$999End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS show the overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 7 stabilizing near 16°C under partly cloudy skies with southwest winds, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for that threshold. This reflects above-average warmth for early September, where the long-term mean low sits around 11–12°C, as the region experiences lingering summer-like conditions with daytime highs reaching 26–27°C. Official monitoring confirms recent daily lows near 14–17°C, supporting trader consensus on limited cooling potential overnight. A stronger-than-expected northerly flow or localized measurement variance at the Schiphol station could still push readings to 15°C, though model agreement and current pressure patterns make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$999End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS show the overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 7 stabilizing near 16°C under partly cloudy skies with southwest winds, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for that threshold. This reflects above-average warmth for early September, where the long-term mean low sits around 11–12°C, as the region experiences lingering summer-like conditions with daytime highs reaching 26–27°C. Official monitoring confirms recent daily lows near 14–17°C, supporting trader consensus on limited cooling potential overnight. A stronger-than-expected northerly flow or localized measurement variance at the Schiphol station could still push readings to 15°C, though model agreement and current pressure patterns make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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