**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 8, 2026, most likely in the 14–15°C range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities (15°C at 28.5%, 14°C at 27.5%, 16°C at 26%, and 13°C at 25%).** A cold front and associated rain are arriving from the southwest on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover and precipitation (85–95% chance in many runs). This limits radiative cooling overnight, keeping lows from falling as far as the long-term average of ~11.5°C. Recent observations show September 7 reaching a high of 26.5°C before the shift, with model consensus from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance pointing to evening/nighttime readings stabilizing near 14–16°C amid steady southwest winds of 10–12 mph. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of rainfall (heavier or earlier rain could suppress the low toward 13°C) and any breaks in cloud cover that might allow slightly more cooling toward 16°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest for this short-range outlook, but traders are pricing the narrow window around the forecast minimum given the dynamic frontal passage. Updated model runs and official KNMI briefings on the day will provide the clearest signals for final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
15°C 30%
14°C 28%
13°C 26%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
8%
12°C
9%
13°C
26%
14°C
28%
15°C
30%
16°C
26%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 30%
14°C 28%
13°C 26%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$15 Vol.
8%
12°C
$0 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$35 Vol.
30%
16°C
$31 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$25 Vol.
8%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 8, 2026, most likely in the 14–15°C range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities (15°C at 28.5%, 14°C at 27.5%, 16°C at 26%, and 13°C at 25%).**
A cold front and associated rain are arriving from the southwest on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover and precipitation (85–95% chance in many runs). This limits radiative cooling overnight, keeping lows from falling as far as the long-term average of ~11.5°C. Recent observations show September 7 reaching a high of 26.5°C before the shift, with model consensus from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance pointing to evening/nighttime readings stabilizing near 14–16°C amid steady southwest winds of 10–12 mph.
Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of rainfall (heavier or earlier rain could suppress the low toward 13°C) and any breaks in cloud cover that might allow slightly more cooling toward 16°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest for this short-range outlook, but traders are pricing the narrow window around the forecast minimum given the dynamic frontal passage. Updated model runs and official KNMI briefings on the day will provide the clearest signals for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$115End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 8, 2026, most likely in the 14–15°C range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities (15°C at 28.5%, 14°C at 27.5%, 16°C at 26%, and 13°C at 25%).**
A cold front and associated rain are arriving from the southwest on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover and precipitation (85–95% chance in many runs). This limits radiative cooling overnight, keeping lows from falling as far as the long-term average of ~11.5°C. Recent observations show September 7 reaching a high of 26.5°C before the shift, with model consensus from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance pointing to evening/nighttime readings stabilizing near 14–16°C amid steady southwest winds of 10–12 mph.
Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of rainfall (heavier or earlier rain could suppress the low toward 13°C) and any breaks in cloud cover that might allow slightly more cooling toward 16°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest for this short-range outlook, but traders are pricing the narrow window around the forecast minimum given the dynamic frontal passage. Updated model runs and official KNMI briefings on the day will provide the clearest signals for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$115End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 8, 2026, most likely in the 14–15°C range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities (15°C at 28.5%, 14°C at 27.5%, 16°C at 26%, and 13°C at 25%).** A cold front and associated rain are arriving from the southwest on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover and precipitation (85–95% chance in many runs). This limits radiative cooling overnight, keeping lows from falling as far as the long-term average of ~11.5°C. Recent observations show September 7 reaching a high of 26.5°C before the shift, with model consensus from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance pointing to evening/nighttime readings stabilizing near 14–16°C amid steady southwest winds of 10–12 mph. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of rainfall (heavier or earlier rain could suppress the low toward 13°C) and any breaks in cloud cover that might allow slightly more cooling toward 16°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest for this short-range outlook, but traders are pricing the narrow window around the forecast minimum given the dynamic frontal passage. Updated model runs and official KNMI briefings on the day will provide the clearest signals for final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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