Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% year-over-year in June 2026 from higher early-year levels has created closely matched trader odds, with the 2.0-2.4% band holding a narrow 53.5% implied probability versus 46.5% for ≤1.9%. Government energy subsidies have tempered headline pressures while yen weakness and rising producer costs from import and commodity trends support underlying demand-driven inflation. The Bank of Japan's fiscal 2026 outlook of around 2.2% for this measure underscores the contest, with swing factors including subsidy duration, yen volatility, global oil developments, and wage momentum. Upcoming monthly releases and BOJ communications will likely influence the narrow spread before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 47%
4.0%+ 1.5%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$36,295 Vol.
$36,295 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
47%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
1%
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 47%
4.0%+ 1.5%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$36,295 Vol.
$36,295 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$11,052 Vol.
47%
2.0-2.4%
$14,873 Vol.
54%
2.5-2.9%
$8,295 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$601 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$657 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$817 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% year-over-year in June 2026 from higher early-year levels has created closely matched trader odds, with the 2.0-2.4% band holding a narrow 53.5% implied probability versus 46.5% for ≤1.9%. Government energy subsidies have tempered headline pressures while yen weakness and rising producer costs from import and commodity trends support underlying demand-driven inflation. The Bank of Japan's fiscal 2026 outlook of around 2.2% for this measure underscores the contest, with swing factors including subsidy duration, yen volatility, global oil developments, and wage momentum. Upcoming monthly releases and BOJ communications will likely influence the narrow spread before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$36,295End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% year-over-year in June 2026 from higher early-year levels has created closely matched trader odds, with the 2.0-2.4% band holding a narrow 53.5% implied probability versus 46.5% for ≤1.9%. Government energy subsidies have tempered headline pressures while yen weakness and rising producer costs from import and commodity trends support underlying demand-driven inflation. The Bank of Japan's fiscal 2026 outlook of around 2.2% for this measure underscores the contest, with swing factors including subsidy duration, yen volatility, global oil developments, and wage momentum. Upcoming monthly releases and BOJ communications will likely influence the narrow spread before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$36,295End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% year-over-year in June 2026 from higher early-year levels has created closely matched trader odds, with the 2.0-2.4% band holding a narrow 53.5% implied probability versus 46.5% for ≤1.9%. Government energy subsidies have tempered headline pressures while yen weakness and rising producer costs from import and commodity trends support underlying demand-driven inflation. The Bank of Japan's fiscal 2026 outlook of around 2.2% for this measure underscores the contest, with swing factors including subsidy duration, yen volatility, global oil developments, and wage momentum. Upcoming monthly releases and BOJ communications will likely influence the narrow spread before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions