**The 66% market-implied probability on “No” for a 2026 engagement reflects the relatively early stage of Jacob Elordi and Kendall Jenner’s relationship.** Reports indicate the pair began quietly dating in January or February 2026, with public sightings and confirmation of seriousness emerging around Coachella in April and intensifying through summer travel and appearances in Australia and Japan. By mid-August, the romance is roughly six to seven months old. Insiders describe the connection as serious and emotionally significant—Kendall has reportedly told close friends she is “in love” and happier than she has been in years—yet no verified statements, family hints, or public signals point to an imminent proposal or marriage plans before year-end. Celebrity timelines in this circle often prioritize privacy and stability first, and historical patterns for both (Kendall’s prior relationships and Elordi’s dating history) show that deeper commitments like engagements typically follow longer periods of exclusivity. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited: no major award-season or promotional events are expected to accelerate personal milestones, and the absence of tabloid or official confirmation keeps trader consensus weighted against a 2026 timeline. While momentum is positive, the compressed window through December makes an engagement the less probable outcome in aggregated market sentiment.