Official forecasts from Environment Canada for Toronto on August 15 highlight sunny conditions with daytime highs near 25–27°C, reflecting the primary driver behind the tight market split between 25°C and 26°C implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines for mid-August average around 25°C with occasional excursions above 26°C under clear skies. Recent model runs indicate stable high pressure and limited moisture, supporting trader focus on resolution criteria tied to official maximum observations rather than broader seasonal trends. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these edges ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 15?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 15?
26°C 42%
25°C 36%
24°C 9%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
36%
26°C
42%
27°C
8%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
1%
26°C 42%
25°C 36%
24°C 9%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
$97 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$453 Vol.
1%
22°C
$404 Vol.
2%
23°C
$442 Vol.
2%
24°C
$384 Vol.
9%
25°C
$210 Vol.
36%
26°C
$1,634 Vol.
42%
27°C
$379 Vol.
8%
28°C
$195 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$146 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada for Toronto on August 15 highlight sunny conditions with daytime highs near 25–27°C, reflecting the primary driver behind the tight market split between 25°C and 26°C implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines for mid-August average around 25°C with occasional excursions above 26°C under clear skies. Recent model runs indicate stable high pressure and limited moisture, supporting trader focus on resolution criteria tied to official maximum observations rather than broader seasonal trends. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these edges ahead of market close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,415End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada for Toronto on August 15 highlight sunny conditions with daytime highs near 25–27°C, reflecting the primary driver behind the tight market split between 25°C and 26°C implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines for mid-August average around 25°C with occasional excursions above 26°C under clear skies. Recent model runs indicate stable high pressure and limited moisture, supporting trader focus on resolution criteria tied to official maximum observations rather than broader seasonal trends. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these edges ahead of market close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,415End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Environment Canada for Toronto on August 15 highlight sunny conditions with daytime highs near 25–27°C, reflecting the primary driver behind the tight market split between 25°C and 26°C implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines for mid-August average around 25°C with occasional excursions above 26°C under clear skies. Recent model runs indicate stable high pressure and limited moisture, supporting trader focus on resolution criteria tied to official maximum observations rather than broader seasonal trends. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these edges ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions