Recent forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project São Paulo highs near 28–31°C for August 17 under mostly sunny, dry winter conditions typical of the Southern Hemisphere dry season. Subtropical variability, including limited cold front influence and warming high-pressure patterns, supports the market-implied 50% odds on 32°C or higher while keeping 28°C as the next most favored single outcome at 35%. Traders weigh these against historical August averages around 23–27°C and model uncertainty ranges that could shift with updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 17?
31°C 33%
30°C 33%
29°C 31%
32°C or higher 8%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
31%
30°C
33%
31°C
33%
32°C or higher
8%
31°C 33%
30°C 33%
29°C 31%
32°C or higher 8%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
31%
30°C
33%
31°C
33%
32°C or higher
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project São Paulo highs near 28–31°C for August 17 under mostly sunny, dry winter conditions typical of the Southern Hemisphere dry season. Subtropical variability, including limited cold front influence and warming high-pressure patterns, supports the market-implied 50% odds on 32°C or higher while keeping 28°C as the next most favored single outcome at 35%. Traders weigh these against historical August averages around 23–27°C and model uncertainty ranges that could shift with updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions