Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across western Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive cloud cover, scattered to heavy showers, and suppressed daytime heating through August 17. Official PAGASA guidance for the date projects a maximum of 32°C with a 70% rain probability, while recent model runs and extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate cluster highs near 28–30°C amid widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology (average highs near 30–31°C), favoring lower maxima as moisture and reduced insolation limit surface warming. The market’s concentration on 28–29°C therefore reflects the consensus that ongoing monsoon rains will cap the daily peak below the seasonal mean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?
29°C 45%
28°C 30%
30°C 17%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
30%
29°C
45%
30°C
17%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 45%
28°C 30%
30°C 17%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
$92 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$84 Vol.
1%
26°C
$338 Vol.
1%
27°C
$148 Vol.
6%
28°C
$202 Vol.
30%
29°C
$713 Vol.
45%
30°C
$100 Vol.
17%
31°C
$226 Vol.
6%
32°C
$362 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$225 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across western Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive cloud cover, scattered to heavy showers, and suppressed daytime heating through August 17. Official PAGASA guidance for the date projects a maximum of 32°C with a 70% rain probability, while recent model runs and extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate cluster highs near 28–30°C amid widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology (average highs near 30–31°C), favoring lower maxima as moisture and reduced insolation limit surface warming. The market’s concentration on 28–29°C therefore reflects the consensus that ongoing monsoon rains will cap the daily peak below the seasonal mean.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,526End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across western Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive cloud cover, scattered to heavy showers, and suppressed daytime heating through August 17. Official PAGASA guidance for the date projects a maximum of 32°C with a 70% rain probability, while recent model runs and extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate cluster highs near 28–30°C amid widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology (average highs near 30–31°C), favoring lower maxima as moisture and reduced insolation limit surface warming. The market’s concentration on 28–29°C therefore reflects the consensus that ongoing monsoon rains will cap the daily peak below the seasonal mean.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,526End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across western Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive cloud cover, scattered to heavy showers, and suppressed daytime heating through August 17. Official PAGASA guidance for the date projects a maximum of 32°C with a 70% rain probability, while recent model runs and extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate cluster highs near 28–30°C amid widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology (average highs near 30–31°C), favoring lower maxima as moisture and reduced insolation limit surface warming. The market’s concentration on 28–29°C therefore reflects the consensus that ongoing monsoon rains will cap the daily peak below the seasonal mean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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