Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a daily maximum around 27–29°C for São Paulo on August 16, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 28°C (44%) and 29°C (24.5%). August climatology shows typical highs of 23–27°C under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with clear or scattered-cloud conditions and light easterly winds allowing greater daytime heating while limiting moisture and cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Model consensus and recent dry conditions across central Brazil have supported slightly above-average readings, pushing implied odds toward the upper end of the seasonal range without crossing into 30°C territory, where probabilities remain low. Upcoming official station observations and any last-minute model adjustments will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 16?
28°C 45%
29°C 25%
27°C 15%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
7%
27°C
15%
28°C
45%
29°C
25%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 45%
29°C 25%
27°C 15%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
$154 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$62 Vol.
1%
25°C
$253 Vol.
2%
26°C
$576 Vol.
7%
27°C
$2,915 Vol.
15%
28°C
$114 Vol.
45%
29°C
$368 Vol.
25%
30°C
$262 Vol.
5%
31°C
$111 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$218 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a daily maximum around 27–29°C for São Paulo on August 16, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 28°C (44%) and 29°C (24.5%). August climatology shows typical highs of 23–27°C under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with clear or scattered-cloud conditions and light easterly winds allowing greater daytime heating while limiting moisture and cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Model consensus and recent dry conditions across central Brazil have supported slightly above-average readings, pushing implied odds toward the upper end of the seasonal range without crossing into 30°C territory, where probabilities remain low. Upcoming official station observations and any last-minute model adjustments will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$5,073End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a daily maximum around 27–29°C for São Paulo on August 16, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 28°C (44%) and 29°C (24.5%). August climatology shows typical highs of 23–27°C under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with clear or scattered-cloud conditions and light easterly winds allowing greater daytime heating while limiting moisture and cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Model consensus and recent dry conditions across central Brazil have supported slightly above-average readings, pushing implied odds toward the upper end of the seasonal range without crossing into 30°C territory, where probabilities remain low. Upcoming official station observations and any last-minute model adjustments will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,073End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a daily maximum around 27–29°C for São Paulo on August 16, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 28°C (44%) and 29°C (24.5%). August climatology shows typical highs of 23–27°C under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with clear or scattered-cloud conditions and light easterly winds allowing greater daytime heating while limiting moisture and cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Model consensus and recent dry conditions across central Brazil have supported slightly above-average readings, pushing implied odds toward the upper end of the seasonal range without crossing into 30°C territory, where probabilities remain low. Upcoming official station observations and any last-minute model adjustments will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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