Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models converge on a daily maximum of 102–105°F for Dallas on August 17 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability, keeping the distribution centered near 103–104°F, consistent with climatological late-summer norms for the region. The market’s heaviest weighting on the 102–103°F and 104–105°F bins reflects this consensus while assigning lower implied probability to 106°F-plus outcomes that would require either stronger subsidence or an unexpected delay in any weak frontal passage. With the event resolving within 24 hours, traders are closely monitoring the final NWS forecast update and any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction that could nudge the high by a degree or two.