Current short-term forecasts for São Paulo on August 15 point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C under typical Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to these outcomes. Subsidence from the subtropical high, limited moisture advection, and moderate diurnal heating beneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies support this range, consistent with August climatology showing average highs of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads arise from uncertainties in exact cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat island amplification at official stations, which can add 1–2°C locally. With probabilities closely split between 25°C and 26°C, the market reflects genuine forecast variability ahead of final observational data, while lower odds on 24°C or 27°C account for possible shifts in insolation or boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 15?
26°C 33%
25°C 29%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
16%
25°C
29%
26°C
33%
27°C
11%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 33%
25°C 29%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$37 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$98 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$231 Vol.
1%
23°C
$535 Vol.
7%
24°C
$554 Vol.
16%
25°C
$549 Vol.
29%
26°C
$1,900 Vol.
33%
27°C
$590 Vol.
11%
28°C
$71 Vol.
1%
29°C
$60 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$197 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts for São Paulo on August 15 point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C under typical Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to these outcomes. Subsidence from the subtropical high, limited moisture advection, and moderate diurnal heating beneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies support this range, consistent with August climatology showing average highs of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads arise from uncertainties in exact cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat island amplification at official stations, which can add 1–2°C locally. With probabilities closely split between 25°C and 26°C, the market reflects genuine forecast variability ahead of final observational data, while lower odds on 24°C or 27°C account for possible shifts in insolation or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,824End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts for São Paulo on August 15 point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C under typical Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to these outcomes. Subsidence from the subtropical high, limited moisture advection, and moderate diurnal heating beneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies support this range, consistent with August climatology showing average highs of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads arise from uncertainties in exact cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat island amplification at official stations, which can add 1–2°C locally. With probabilities closely split between 25°C and 26°C, the market reflects genuine forecast variability ahead of final observational data, while lower odds on 24°C or 27°C account for possible shifts in insolation or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,824End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecasts for São Paulo on August 15 point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C under typical Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to these outcomes. Subsidence from the subtropical high, limited moisture advection, and moderate diurnal heating beneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies support this range, consistent with August climatology showing average highs of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads arise from uncertainties in exact cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat island amplification at official stations, which can add 1–2°C locally. With probabilities closely split between 25°C and 26°C, the market reflects genuine forecast variability ahead of final observational data, while lower odds on 24°C or 27°C account for possible shifts in insolation or boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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