Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 26–27°C for Mexico City’s highest temperature on August 15 because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability during the peak of the rainy season. High elevation near 2,240 m keeps baseline highs near the long-term August average of 24–25 °C, while afternoon convective clouds, humidity, and scattered showers frequently limit solar heating and produce brief cooling. Slight differences between leading outcomes hinge on timing and coverage of thunderstorms, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention—variables that diverge modestly across ensemble runs. With resolution just one day away, the near-even split between the two top bins reflects this narrow uncertainty band rather than any major shift in larger-scale circulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 15?
26°C 39%
27°C 38%
25°C 10%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
10%
26°C
39%
27°C
38%
28°C
8%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 39%
27°C 38%
25°C 10%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$127 Vol.
2%
24°C
$58 Vol.
5%
25°C
$239 Vol.
10%
26°C
$168 Vol.
39%
27°C
$704 Vol.
38%
28°C
$67 Vol.
8%
29°C
$168 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$346 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 26–27°C for Mexico City’s highest temperature on August 15 because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability during the peak of the rainy season. High elevation near 2,240 m keeps baseline highs near the long-term August average of 24–25 °C, while afternoon convective clouds, humidity, and scattered showers frequently limit solar heating and produce brief cooling. Slight differences between leading outcomes hinge on timing and coverage of thunderstorms, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention—variables that diverge modestly across ensemble runs. With resolution just one day away, the near-even split between the two top bins reflects this narrow uncertainty band rather than any major shift in larger-scale circulation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,089End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 26–27°C for Mexico City’s highest temperature on August 15 because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability during the peak of the rainy season. High elevation near 2,240 m keeps baseline highs near the long-term August average of 24–25 °C, while afternoon convective clouds, humidity, and scattered showers frequently limit solar heating and produce brief cooling. Slight differences between leading outcomes hinge on timing and coverage of thunderstorms, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention—variables that diverge modestly across ensemble runs. With resolution just one day away, the near-even split between the two top bins reflects this narrow uncertainty band rather than any major shift in larger-scale circulation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,089End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 26–27°C for Mexico City’s highest temperature on August 15 because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability during the peak of the rainy season. High elevation near 2,240 m keeps baseline highs near the long-term August average of 24–25 °C, while afternoon convective clouds, humidity, and scattered showers frequently limit solar heating and produce brief cooling. Slight differences between leading outcomes hinge on timing and coverage of thunderstorms, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat retention—variables that diverge modestly across ensemble runs. With resolution just one day away, the near-even split between the two top bins reflects this narrow uncertainty band rather than any major shift in larger-scale circulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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