Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and afternoon convective showers across the Valle de México, moderating maximum temperatures for August 15 into the 24–26°C range. These conditions, driven by seasonal monsoon moisture and orographic lift around the high-elevation basin, favor the closely matched 26°C and 27°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Model consensus shows limited warming potential absent clearer skies, while urban heat-island effects and variable precipitation timing introduce the narrow uncertainty between those two thresholds. Updated official guidance and real-time station data on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 15?
26°C 39%
27°C 39%
25°C 10%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
10%
26°C
39%
27°C
39%
28°C
8%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 39%
27°C 39%
25°C 10%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$127 Vol.
2%
24°C
$58 Vol.
5%
25°C
$215 Vol.
10%
26°C
$166 Vol.
39%
27°C
$704 Vol.
39%
28°C
$67 Vol.
8%
29°C
$168 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$346 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and afternoon convective showers across the Valle de México, moderating maximum temperatures for August 15 into the 24–26°C range. These conditions, driven by seasonal monsoon moisture and orographic lift around the high-elevation basin, favor the closely matched 26°C and 27°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Model consensus shows limited warming potential absent clearer skies, while urban heat-island effects and variable precipitation timing introduce the narrow uncertainty between those two thresholds. Updated official guidance and real-time station data on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,063End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and afternoon convective showers across the Valle de México, moderating maximum temperatures for August 15 into the 24–26°C range. These conditions, driven by seasonal monsoon moisture and orographic lift around the high-elevation basin, favor the closely matched 26°C and 27°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Model consensus shows limited warming potential absent clearer skies, while urban heat-island effects and variable precipitation timing introduce the narrow uncertainty between those two thresholds. Updated official guidance and real-time station data on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,063End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and afternoon convective showers across the Valle de México, moderating maximum temperatures for August 15 into the 24–26°C range. These conditions, driven by seasonal monsoon moisture and orographic lift around the high-elevation basin, favor the closely matched 26°C and 27°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Model consensus shows limited warming potential absent clearer skies, while urban heat-island effects and variable precipitation timing introduce the narrow uncertainty between those two thresholds. Updated official guidance and real-time station data on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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