Recent forecasts from AEMET and GFS ensembles indicate a sharp cooling trend for Madrid on September 9 driven by a shift to northerly and northeasterly flow that replaces earlier warm southerly advection. This pattern favors increased cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and a risk of light showers, limiting daytime insolation and capping the maximum near the long-term September 9 average of 28°C. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly between 26–28°C, with limited potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies to push readings higher. Trader consensus around these outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range in short-range model guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of frontal passage and cloud persistence over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
27°C 38%
28°C 28%
26°C 22%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
22%
27°C
38%
28°C
28%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
27°C 38%
28°C 28%
26°C 22%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
24°C or below
$624 Vol.
2%
25°C
$21 Vol.
6%
26°C
$163 Vol.
22%
27°C
$476 Vol.
38%
28°C
$406 Vol.
28%
29°C
$31 Vol.
5%
30°C
$232 Vol.
1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
1%
32°C
$293 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$384 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and GFS ensembles indicate a sharp cooling trend for Madrid on September 9 driven by a shift to northerly and northeasterly flow that replaces earlier warm southerly advection. This pattern favors increased cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and a risk of light showers, limiting daytime insolation and capping the maximum near the long-term September 9 average of 28°C. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly between 26–28°C, with limited potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies to push readings higher. Trader consensus around these outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range in short-range model guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of frontal passage and cloud persistence over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,769End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and GFS ensembles indicate a sharp cooling trend for Madrid on September 9 driven by a shift to northerly and northeasterly flow that replaces earlier warm southerly advection. This pattern favors increased cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and a risk of light showers, limiting daytime insolation and capping the maximum near the long-term September 9 average of 28°C. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly between 26–28°C, with limited potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies to push readings higher. Trader consensus around these outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range in short-range model guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of frontal passage and cloud persistence over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,769End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET and GFS ensembles indicate a sharp cooling trend for Madrid on September 9 driven by a shift to northerly and northeasterly flow that replaces earlier warm southerly advection. This pattern favors increased cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and a risk of light showers, limiting daytime insolation and capping the maximum near the long-term September 9 average of 28°C. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly between 26–28°C, with limited potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies to push readings higher. Trader consensus around these outcomes reflects the narrow uncertainty range in short-range model guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of frontal passage and cloud persistence over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions