Recent northerly wind shifts and partial cloud cover are moderating nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, anchoring market-implied odds near 19–20°C for the September 9 minimum. GFS and ECMWF guidance show overnight lows stabilizing around 20°C under light northeast flow, with scattered showers possible early in the period that could limit further drops. This aligns with a transition from recent highs near 35°C toward more typical early-September conditions, though model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery introduce uncertainty between 18–21°C outcomes. Updated AEMET and high-resolution runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
19°C 32%
20°C 28%
18°C 19%
21°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
15°C or below
8%
16°C
8%
17°C
11%
18°C
19%
19°C
32%
20°C
28%
21°C
14%
22°C
9%
23°C
4%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
8%
19°C 32%
20°C 28%
18°C 19%
21°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
15°C or below
$25 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
8%
17°C
$0 Vol.
11%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
32%
20°C
$0 Vol.
28%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
9%
23°C
$30 Vol.
4%
24°C
$12 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$12 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly wind shifts and partial cloud cover are moderating nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, anchoring market-implied odds near 19–20°C for the September 9 minimum. GFS and ECMWF guidance show overnight lows stabilizing around 20°C under light northeast flow, with scattered showers possible early in the period that could limit further drops. This aligns with a transition from recent highs near 35°C toward more typical early-September conditions, though model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery introduce uncertainty between 18–21°C outcomes. Updated AEMET and high-resolution runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$79End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly wind shifts and partial cloud cover are moderating nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, anchoring market-implied odds near 19–20°C for the September 9 minimum. GFS and ECMWF guidance show overnight lows stabilizing around 20°C under light northeast flow, with scattered showers possible early in the period that could limit further drops. This aligns with a transition from recent highs near 35°C toward more typical early-September conditions, though model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery introduce uncertainty between 18–21°C outcomes. Updated AEMET and high-resolution runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$79End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northerly wind shifts and partial cloud cover are moderating nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, anchoring market-implied odds near 19–20°C for the September 9 minimum. GFS and ECMWF guidance show overnight lows stabilizing around 20°C under light northeast flow, with scattered showers possible early in the period that could limit further drops. This aligns with a transition from recent highs near 35°C toward more typical early-September conditions, though model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery introduce uncertainty between 18–21°C outcomes. Updated AEMET and high-resolution runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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