Persistent high pressure and a lingering heat dome over the central U.S. have driven above-normal temperatures across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies, light southerly winds, and a high near 103°F on August 16. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and minimal cloud cover, positioning 102-103°F as the market's leading outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent days with highs of 99-102°F and active heat advisories reinforce trader expectations, though slight model variations in peak timing or localized effects could shift results into the 100-101°F or 104-105°F bins. Historical August averages near 96°F highlight the current anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 16?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 16?
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 27%
104-105°F 15%
106-107°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
27%
102-103°F
56%
104-105°F
15%
106-107°F
3%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 27%
104-105°F 15%
106-107°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
95°F or below
$187 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$85 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$35 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$417 Vol.
27%
102-103°F
$1,127 Vol.
56%
104-105°F
$946 Vol.
15%
106-107°F
$1,160 Vol.
3%
108-109°F
$39 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$53 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$262 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$266 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a lingering heat dome over the central U.S. have driven above-normal temperatures across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies, light southerly winds, and a high near 103°F on August 16. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and minimal cloud cover, positioning 102-103°F as the market's leading outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent days with highs of 99-102°F and active heat advisories reinforce trader expectations, though slight model variations in peak timing or localized effects could shift results into the 100-101°F or 104-105°F bins. Historical August averages near 96°F highlight the current anomaly.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$4,576End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a lingering heat dome over the central U.S. have driven above-normal temperatures across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies, light southerly winds, and a high near 103°F on August 16. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and minimal cloud cover, positioning 102-103°F as the market's leading outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent days with highs of 99-102°F and active heat advisories reinforce trader expectations, though slight model variations in peak timing or localized effects could shift results into the 100-101°F or 104-105°F bins. Historical August averages near 96°F highlight the current anomaly.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,576End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and a lingering heat dome over the central U.S. have driven above-normal temperatures across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies, light southerly winds, and a high near 103°F on August 16. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and minimal cloud cover, positioning 102-103°F as the market's leading outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent days with highs of 99-102°F and active heat advisories reinforce trader expectations, though slight model variations in peak timing or localized effects could shift results into the 100-101°F or 104-105°F bins. Historical August averages near 96°F highlight the current anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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