Persistent upper-level ridging across the southern Plains has sustained hot, dry conditions over central Texas, driving National Weather Service and ensemble guidance to center Austin highs near 100–102°F for August 15 under mostly sunny skies and southwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological peak heat in mid-August, when daily maxima typically reach 97–99°F, though current model runs show limited moisture or frontal influence to moderate temperatures. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and surrounding sites confirm afternoon readings climbing to 100–101°F with heat indices above 105°F, reinforcing trader emphasis on the 100–101°F bin while leaving modest probability for a 102–103°F spike if subsidence strengthens further. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will refine any subtle steering or boundary-layer changes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 15?
100-101°F 52%
102-103°F 25%
98-99°F 16%
104-105°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
16%
100-101°F
52%
102-103°F
25%
104-105°F
6%
106-107°F
2%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 52%
102-103°F 25%
98-99°F 16%
104-105°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
91°F or below
$28 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$80 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$157 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$538 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$335 Vol.
16%
100-101°F
$671 Vol.
52%
102-103°F
$40 Vol.
25%
104-105°F
$82 Vol.
6%
106-107°F
$54 Vol.
2%
108-109°F
$156 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$325 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent upper-level ridging across the southern Plains has sustained hot, dry conditions over central Texas, driving National Weather Service and ensemble guidance to center Austin highs near 100–102°F for August 15 under mostly sunny skies and southwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological peak heat in mid-August, when daily maxima typically reach 97–99°F, though current model runs show limited moisture or frontal influence to moderate temperatures. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and surrounding sites confirm afternoon readings climbing to 100–101°F with heat indices above 105°F, reinforcing trader emphasis on the 100–101°F bin while leaving modest probability for a 102–103°F spike if subsidence strengthens further. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will refine any subtle steering or boundary-layer changes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,465End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent upper-level ridging across the southern Plains has sustained hot, dry conditions over central Texas, driving National Weather Service and ensemble guidance to center Austin highs near 100–102°F for August 15 under mostly sunny skies and southwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological peak heat in mid-August, when daily maxima typically reach 97–99°F, though current model runs show limited moisture or frontal influence to moderate temperatures. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and surrounding sites confirm afternoon readings climbing to 100–101°F with heat indices above 105°F, reinforcing trader emphasis on the 100–101°F bin while leaving modest probability for a 102–103°F spike if subsidence strengthens further. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will refine any subtle steering or boundary-layer changes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,465End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent upper-level ridging across the southern Plains has sustained hot, dry conditions over central Texas, driving National Weather Service and ensemble guidance to center Austin highs near 100–102°F for August 15 under mostly sunny skies and southwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological peak heat in mid-August, when daily maxima typically reach 97–99°F, though current model runs show limited moisture or frontal influence to moderate temperatures. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and surrounding sites confirm afternoon readings climbing to 100–101°F with heat indices above 105°F, reinforcing trader emphasis on the 100–101°F bin while leaving modest probability for a 102–103°F spike if subsidence strengthens further. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will refine any subtle steering or boundary-layer changes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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