Recent downward revisions to official forecasts position the 0-1.0% range as the dominant market-implied outcome for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth. The ECB’s June 2026 projections cut the estimate to 0.8%, citing the impact of elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, while the OECD and IMF similarly anchor expectations near 0.8-0.9%. First-quarter data showed only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, with Q2 momentum weakening as PMIs signaled contraction and services inflation accelerated to 3.5%. The ECB’s June rate hike of 25 basis points reflects these persistent price pressures, tempering domestic demand despite German fiscal support. Markets price in limited upside from any de-escalation, keeping the 1.0-2.0% bucket at just 24.5% implied probability amid subdued export and investment outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0-1.0% 71.8%
1.0-2.0% 25%
<0% 3.5%
4.0-5.0% 1.4%
$29,775 Vol.
$29,775 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
4%
0-1.0%
72%
1.0-2.0%
25%
2.0-3.0%
1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1.0% 71.8%
1.0-2.0% 25%
<0% 3.5%
4.0-5.0% 1.4%
$29,775 Vol.
$29,775 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$1,623 Vol.
4%
0-1.0%
$11,413 Vol.
72%
1.0-2.0%
$7,076 Vol.
25%
2.0-3.0%
$1,131 Vol.
1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,144 Vol.
1%
5.0-6.0%
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,599 Vol.
<1%
7.0%+
$1,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to official forecasts position the 0-1.0% range as the dominant market-implied outcome for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth. The ECB’s June 2026 projections cut the estimate to 0.8%, citing the impact of elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, while the OECD and IMF similarly anchor expectations near 0.8-0.9%. First-quarter data showed only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, with Q2 momentum weakening as PMIs signaled contraction and services inflation accelerated to 3.5%. The ECB’s June rate hike of 25 basis points reflects these persistent price pressures, tempering domestic demand despite German fiscal support. Markets price in limited upside from any de-escalation, keeping the 1.0-2.0% bucket at just 24.5% implied probability amid subdued export and investment outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$29,775End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to official forecasts position the 0-1.0% range as the dominant market-implied outcome for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth. The ECB’s June 2026 projections cut the estimate to 0.8%, citing the impact of elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, while the OECD and IMF similarly anchor expectations near 0.8-0.9%. First-quarter data showed only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, with Q2 momentum weakening as PMIs signaled contraction and services inflation accelerated to 3.5%. The ECB’s June rate hike of 25 basis points reflects these persistent price pressures, tempering domestic demand despite German fiscal support. Markets price in limited upside from any de-escalation, keeping the 1.0-2.0% bucket at just 24.5% implied probability amid subdued export and investment outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,775End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions to official forecasts position the 0-1.0% range as the dominant market-implied outcome for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth. The ECB’s June 2026 projections cut the estimate to 0.8%, citing the impact of elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, while the OECD and IMF similarly anchor expectations near 0.8-0.9%. First-quarter data showed only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, with Q2 momentum weakening as PMIs signaled contraction and services inflation accelerated to 3.5%. The ECB’s June rate hike of 25 basis points reflects these persistent price pressures, tempering domestic demand despite German fiscal support. Markets price in limited upside from any de-escalation, keeping the 1.0-2.0% bucket at just 24.5% implied probability amid subdued export and investment outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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