Recent energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions have weighed on UK growth prospects, supporting the market's 62.8% implied probability on 1-2% annual GDP expansion for 2026 while elevating the 30.5% odds on 0-1%. Official data show Q1 2026 growth at 0.6% with underlying momentum subdued, and independent forecasts from EY, OECD, and the IMF cluster between 0.9% and 1.4% amid elevated energy costs and sticky core inflation near 2.6%. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, reflecting limited room for easing despite softening labor conditions. Geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if supply shocks intensify or abate ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1-2% 62.7%
0-1% 31%
<0 6.9%
2-3% 3.5%
$72,482 Vol.
$72,482 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
<0
7%
0-1%
31%
1-2%
63%
2-3%
3%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 62.7%
0-1% 31%
<0 6.9%
2-3% 3.5%
$72,482 Vol.
$72,482 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$11,068 Vol.
7%
0-1%
$18,607 Vol.
31%
1-2%
$23,662 Vol.
63%
2-3%
$4,159 Vol.
3%
3-4%
$3,146 Vol.
2%
4-5%
$8,288 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$3,552 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions have weighed on UK growth prospects, supporting the market's 62.8% implied probability on 1-2% annual GDP expansion for 2026 while elevating the 30.5% odds on 0-1%. Official data show Q1 2026 growth at 0.6% with underlying momentum subdued, and independent forecasts from EY, OECD, and the IMF cluster between 0.9% and 1.4% amid elevated energy costs and sticky core inflation near 2.6%. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, reflecting limited room for easing despite softening labor conditions. Geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if supply shocks intensify or abate ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$72,482End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions have weighed on UK growth prospects, supporting the market's 62.8% implied probability on 1-2% annual GDP expansion for 2026 while elevating the 30.5% odds on 0-1%. Official data show Q1 2026 growth at 0.6% with underlying momentum subdued, and independent forecasts from EY, OECD, and the IMF cluster between 0.9% and 1.4% amid elevated energy costs and sticky core inflation near 2.6%. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, reflecting limited room for easing despite softening labor conditions. Geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if supply shocks intensify or abate ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$72,482End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions have weighed on UK growth prospects, supporting the market's 62.8% implied probability on 1-2% annual GDP expansion for 2026 while elevating the 30.5% odds on 0-1%. Official data show Q1 2026 growth at 0.6% with underlying momentum subdued, and independent forecasts from EY, OECD, and the IMF cluster between 0.9% and 1.4% amid elevated energy costs and sticky core inflation near 2.6%. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, reflecting limited room for easing despite softening labor conditions. Geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if supply shocks intensify or abate ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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