Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 21–25 main posts per day during early August, anchors trader consensus around the 180–199 bracket for the August 7–14 window at a dominant 97.3% implied probability. This range aligns with his typical selective engagement amid ongoing priorities at Tesla and xAI, absent any major breaking news or product launches that historically trigger reply surges or extended threads. Precedent from similar weekly markets shows Musk rarely deviates far from this baseline on quieter stretches, reinforcing the market’s tight clustering. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected event—such as a high-profile announcement or real-time controversy—prompting sustained spikes beyond 30–35 daily posts, though such catalysts remain absent through the period’s close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 97.3%
200-219 2.6%
220-239 <1%
240-259 <1%
$3,197,972 Vol.
$3,197,972 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
180-199
97%
200-219
3%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 97.3%
200-219 2.6%
220-239 <1%
240-259 <1%
$3,197,972 Vol.
$3,197,972 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
180-199
$351,052 Vol.
97%
200-219
$369,549 Vol.
3%
220-239
$270,943 Vol.
<1%
240-259
$225,024 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$117,600 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$82,283 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$78,462 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$50,309 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$51,158 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$33,043 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$35,175 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$23,258 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$19,423 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$12,673 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$10,346 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$10,196 Vol.
<1%
500+
$32,807 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 21–25 main posts per day during early August, anchors trader consensus around the 180–199 bracket for the August 7–14 window at a dominant 97.3% implied probability. This range aligns with his typical selective engagement amid ongoing priorities at Tesla and xAI, absent any major breaking news or product launches that historically trigger reply surges or extended threads. Precedent from similar weekly markets shows Musk rarely deviates far from this baseline on quieter stretches, reinforcing the market’s tight clustering. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected event—such as a high-profile announcement or real-time controversy—prompting sustained spikes beyond 30–35 daily posts, though such catalysts remain absent through the period’s close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$3,197,972End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 21–25 main posts per day during early August, anchors trader consensus around the 180–199 bracket for the August 7–14 window at a dominant 97.3% implied probability. This range aligns with his typical selective engagement amid ongoing priorities at Tesla and xAI, absent any major breaking news or product launches that historically trigger reply surges or extended threads. Precedent from similar weekly markets shows Musk rarely deviates far from this baseline on quieter stretches, reinforcing the market’s tight clustering. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected event—such as a high-profile announcement or real-time controversy—prompting sustained spikes beyond 30–35 daily posts, though such catalysts remain absent through the period’s close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,197,972End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 21–25 main posts per day during early August, anchors trader consensus around the 180–199 bracket for the August 7–14 window at a dominant 97.3% implied probability. This range aligns with his typical selective engagement amid ongoing priorities at Tesla and xAI, absent any major breaking news or product launches that historically trigger reply surges or extended threads. Precedent from similar weekly markets shows Musk rarely deviates far from this baseline on quieter stretches, reinforcing the market’s tight clustering. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected event—such as a high-profile announcement or real-time controversy—prompting sustained spikes beyond 30–35 daily posts, though such catalysts remain absent through the period’s close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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