Trader consensus heavily favors the 180-199 bracket for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 7-14 because his recent cadence has settled into a reliable 21-25 posts per day through early August, with most weekdays falling between 15 and 25. This pattern, punctuated by occasional spikes such as the 41-post day on August 9, aligns precisely with the market-implied range and reflects Musk’s established habit of frequent engagement on platform news, Tesla updates, and real-time commentary. The overwhelming 94.5% probability captures this steady baseline. An upset into higher brackets would require a major catalyst—such as a high-profile product launch, regulatory development, or viral controversy—to drive sustained daily output well above recent norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 96.2%
200-219 3.8%
220-239 <1%
240-259 <1%
$3,111,428 Vol.
$3,111,428 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
180-199
96%
200-219
4%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 96.2%
200-219 3.8%
220-239 <1%
240-259 <1%
$3,111,428 Vol.
$3,111,428 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
180-199
$324,399 Vol.
96%
200-219
$334,123 Vol.
4%
220-239
$247,476 Vol.
<1%
240-259
$224,024 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$117,600 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$82,283 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$78,462 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$50,309 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$51,158 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$33,043 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$35,175 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$23,258 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$19,423 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$12,673 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$10,346 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$10,196 Vol.
<1%
500+
$32,807 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors the 180-199 bracket for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 7-14 because his recent cadence has settled into a reliable 21-25 posts per day through early August, with most weekdays falling between 15 and 25. This pattern, punctuated by occasional spikes such as the 41-post day on August 9, aligns precisely with the market-implied range and reflects Musk’s established habit of frequent engagement on platform news, Tesla updates, and real-time commentary. The overwhelming 94.5% probability captures this steady baseline. An upset into higher brackets would require a major catalyst—such as a high-profile product launch, regulatory development, or viral controversy—to drive sustained daily output well above recent norms.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$3,111,428End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors the 180-199 bracket for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 7-14 because his recent cadence has settled into a reliable 21-25 posts per day through early August, with most weekdays falling between 15 and 25. This pattern, punctuated by occasional spikes such as the 41-post day on August 9, aligns precisely with the market-implied range and reflects Musk’s established habit of frequent engagement on platform news, Tesla updates, and real-time commentary. The overwhelming 94.5% probability captures this steady baseline. An upset into higher brackets would require a major catalyst—such as a high-profile product launch, regulatory development, or viral controversy—to drive sustained daily output well above recent norms.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,111,428End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors the 180-199 bracket for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 7-14 because his recent cadence has settled into a reliable 21-25 posts per day through early August, with most weekdays falling between 15 and 25. This pattern, punctuated by occasional spikes such as the 41-post day on August 9, aligns precisely with the market-implied range and reflects Musk’s established habit of frequent engagement on platform news, Tesla updates, and real-time commentary. The overwhelming 94.5% probability captures this steady baseline. An upset into higher brackets would require a major catalyst—such as a high-profile product launch, regulatory development, or viral controversy—to drive sustained daily output well above recent norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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