**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the Aug. 15-17 window, reflecting typical weekend-to-Monday patterns adjusted for his high baseline activity.** Historical data shows Musk averaging 25-30 tweets daily in recent years, with spikes during news cycles or controversies and occasional lulls on quieter periods. The market's lean toward the 40-64 bracket (nearly 50% implied probability) suggests traders anticipate moderate volume rather than a full workweek pace or an unusually quiet stretch, factoring in the mix of weekend days and the start of a business week. Lower bins under 40 capture the chance of rest or travel, while the 65-89 range prices in potential amplification from breaking events. No major confirmed catalysts appear on the immediate horizon to push counts dramatically higher or lower, leaving room for rapid shifts if X-related developments or personal appearances emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 50%
65-89 24%
<40 23%
90-114 5.0%
NEW
$18,938 Vol.
NEW
$18,938 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
23%
40-64
50%
65-89
24%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 50%
65-89 24%
<40 23%
90-114 5.0%
NEW
$18,938 Vol.
NEW
$18,938 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$790 Vol.
23%
40-64
$1,728 Vol.
50%
65-89
$2,066 Vol.
24%
90-114
$6,571 Vol.
5%
115-139
$3,781 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,249 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$1,487 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$429 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$330 Vol.
<1%
240+
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the Aug. 15-17 window, reflecting typical weekend-to-Monday patterns adjusted for his high baseline activity.** Historical data shows Musk averaging 25-30 tweets daily in recent years, with spikes during news cycles or controversies and occasional lulls on quieter periods. The market's lean toward the 40-64 bracket (nearly 50% implied probability) suggests traders anticipate moderate volume rather than a full workweek pace or an unusually quiet stretch, factoring in the mix of weekend days and the start of a business week. Lower bins under 40 capture the chance of rest or travel, while the 65-89 range prices in potential amplification from breaking events. No major confirmed catalysts appear on the immediate horizon to push counts dramatically higher or lower, leaving room for rapid shifts if X-related developments or personal appearances emerge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$18,938End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the Aug. 15-17 window, reflecting typical weekend-to-Monday patterns adjusted for his high baseline activity.** Historical data shows Musk averaging 25-30 tweets daily in recent years, with spikes during news cycles or controversies and occasional lulls on quieter periods. The market's lean toward the 40-64 bracket (nearly 50% implied probability) suggests traders anticipate moderate volume rather than a full workweek pace or an unusually quiet stretch, factoring in the mix of weekend days and the start of a business week. Lower bins under 40 capture the chance of rest or travel, while the 65-89 range prices in potential amplification from breaking events. No major confirmed catalysts appear on the immediate horizon to push counts dramatically higher or lower, leaving room for rapid shifts if X-related developments or personal appearances emerge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$18,938End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the Aug. 15-17 window, reflecting typical weekend-to-Monday patterns adjusted for his high baseline activity.** Historical data shows Musk averaging 25-30 tweets daily in recent years, with spikes during news cycles or controversies and occasional lulls on quieter periods. The market's lean toward the 40-64 bracket (nearly 50% implied probability) suggests traders anticipate moderate volume rather than a full workweek pace or an unusually quiet stretch, factoring in the mix of weekend days and the start of a business week. Lower bins under 40 capture the chance of rest or travel, while the 65-89 range prices in potential amplification from breaking events. No major confirmed catalysts appear on the immediate horizon to push counts dramatically higher or lower, leaving room for rapid shifts if X-related developments or personal appearances emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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