Recent July CPI data cooling to 6.03% from 6.14% in June has reinforced trader consensus around an 84% implied probability of no change in BanRep’s 12% policy rate at the September 30 meeting. Persistent headline and core inflation near 6% remain well above the 3% target, with end-2026 expectations at 6.6%, while the central bank’s July hold reflected a split vote and data-dependent stance amid resilient 2.5% GDP growth and low unemployment. Risks from El Niño and external factors continue to support a restrictive bias, though the fresh disinflation print has tempered near-term hike odds to under 13% combined.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 84%
25 bps increase 7.4%
50+ bps increase 5.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
$21,421 Vol.
$21,421 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
6%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 7.4%
50+ bps increase 5.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
$21,421 Vol.
$21,421 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
6%
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data cooling to 6.03% from 6.14% in June has reinforced trader consensus around an 84% implied probability of no change in BanRep’s 12% policy rate at the September 30 meeting. Persistent headline and core inflation near 6% remain well above the 3% target, with end-2026 expectations at 6.6%, while the central bank’s July hold reflected a split vote and data-dependent stance amid resilient 2.5% GDP growth and low unemployment. Risks from El Niño and external factors continue to support a restrictive bias, though the fresh disinflation print has tempered near-term hike odds to under 13% combined.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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