Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related frontier models (Fable 5, Mythos 5) drive the 96.4% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic evaluations as of mid-August 2026. The July 24 release of Opus 5 delivered top scores in reasoning, coding, and professional deliverables while maintaining competitive pricing and context windows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google offerings in head-to-head testing. With only two weeks until resolution, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible rival releases or benchmark reversals in the immediate pipeline. A surprise major update from OpenAI or Google could still shift outcomes, though historical product timelines make such moves unlikely before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 96.4%
OpenAI 2.5%
Google 1.3%
Bytedance 1.1%
$24,674 Vol.
$24,674 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
3%
1%
Bytedance
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.4%
OpenAI 2.5%
Google 1.3%
Bytedance 1.1%
$24,674 Vol.
$24,674 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,654 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$2,838 Vol.
3%
$2,046 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$608 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,283 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related frontier models (Fable 5, Mythos 5) drive the 96.4% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic evaluations as of mid-August 2026. The July 24 release of Opus 5 delivered top scores in reasoning, coding, and professional deliverables while maintaining competitive pricing and context windows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google offerings in head-to-head testing. With only two weeks until resolution, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible rival releases or benchmark reversals in the immediate pipeline. A surprise major update from OpenAI or Google could still shift outcomes, though historical product timelines make such moves unlikely before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$24,674End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related frontier models (Fable 5, Mythos 5) drive the 96.4% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic evaluations as of mid-August 2026. The July 24 release of Opus 5 delivered top scores in reasoning, coding, and professional deliverables while maintaining competitive pricing and context windows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google offerings in head-to-head testing. With only two weeks until resolution, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible rival releases or benchmark reversals in the immediate pipeline. A surprise major update from OpenAI or Google could still shift outcomes, though historical product timelines make such moves unlikely before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,674End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related frontier models (Fable 5, Mythos 5) drive the 96.4% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic evaluations as of mid-August 2026. The July 24 release of Opus 5 delivered top scores in reasoning, coding, and professional deliverables while maintaining competitive pricing and context windows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google offerings in head-to-head testing. With only two weeks until resolution, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible rival releases or benchmark reversals in the immediate pipeline. A surprise major update from OpenAI or Google could still shift outcomes, though historical product timelines make such moves unlikely before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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