The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut its key rate by only 25 basis points to 14.00%, paired with an upward revision of the 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7% amid temporary fuel-price spikes and more expansionary fiscal policy, has shaped trader expectations for the September 11 meeting. Underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5%, yet rising inflation expectations and risks from budget deficits and capacity constraints in key sectors have prompted the central bank to signal a slower pace of easing. This cautious stance, combined with moderate GDP growth and decelerating lending, supports the 62% probability assigned to no change while leaving room for a further modest reduction. An increase remains a low-probability outlier given the prevailing disinflationary trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Russia decision in September?
No Change 62%
Decrease 38%
Increase 1.4%
$69,786 Vol.
$69,786 Vol.
Decrease
38%
No Change
62%
Increase
1%
No Change 62%
Decrease 38%
Increase 1.4%
$69,786 Vol.
$69,786 Vol.
Decrease
38%
No Change
62%
Increase
1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut its key rate by only 25 basis points to 14.00%, paired with an upward revision of the 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7% amid temporary fuel-price spikes and more expansionary fiscal policy, has shaped trader expectations for the September 11 meeting. Underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5%, yet rising inflation expectations and risks from budget deficits and capacity constraints in key sectors have prompted the central bank to signal a slower pace of easing. This cautious stance, combined with moderate GDP growth and decelerating lending, supports the 62% probability assigned to no change while leaving room for a further modest reduction. An increase remains a low-probability outlier given the prevailing disinflationary trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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