Recent releases have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 at the top of MathArena.ai with an 84.4% score on uncontaminated research-level problems as of late July 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants near 80%. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training on formal math datasets, or new frontier models expected in Q4 can push any system past the target threshold before year-end. Competitive pressure between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remains tight, while open-source contenders trail significantly. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates, potential benchmark expansions, and any demonstrated gains on ArXivMath or ArXivLean evaluations that could accelerate or stall progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$112,479 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1575
85%
1600
36%
$112,479 Vol.
1575
$33,047 Vol.
85%
1600
$10,827 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 at the top of MathArena.ai with an 84.4% score on uncontaminated research-level problems as of late July 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants near 80%. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training on formal math datasets, or new frontier models expected in Q4 can push any system past the target threshold before year-end. Competitive pressure between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remains tight, while open-source contenders trail significantly. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates, potential benchmark expansions, and any demonstrated gains on ArXivMath or ArXivLean evaluations that could accelerate or stall progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$112,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 at the top of MathArena.ai with an 84.4% score on uncontaminated research-level problems as of late July 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants near 80%. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training on formal math datasets, or new frontier models expected in Q4 can push any system past the target threshold before year-end. Competitive pressure between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remains tight, while open-source contenders trail significantly. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates, potential benchmark expansions, and any demonstrated gains on ArXivMath or ArXivLean evaluations that could accelerate or stall progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$112,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 at the top of MathArena.ai with an 84.4% score on uncontaminated research-level problems as of late July 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants near 80%. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training on formal math datasets, or new frontier models expected in Q4 can push any system past the target threshold before year-end. Competitive pressure between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remains tight, while open-source contenders trail significantly. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates, potential benchmark expansions, and any demonstrated gains on ArXivMath or ArXivLean evaluations that could accelerate or stall progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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