Anthropic holds a commanding 77% implied probability in this market, driven by its Claude Opus 5 and related models topping math-focused leaderboards on platforms like MathArena and arena.ai's text evaluations through mid-August 2026. Recent verified results include perfect scores on the 2026 IMO problems and an unreleased research version advancing the Riemann zeta function lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%, highlighting superior multi-step mathematical reasoning over competitors. OpenAI trails at 11.5% and Google at 12% amid strong but secondary showings on similar benchmarks, while lower-probability entrants reflect limited recent math-specific gains. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent edge in complex reasoning tasks heading into the September cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 77%
Google 12%
OpenAI 12%
Alibaba <1%
$25,294 Vol.
$25,294 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
77%
12%
OpenAI
12%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 77%
Google 12%
OpenAI 12%
Alibaba <1%
$25,294 Vol.
$25,294 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$6,941 Vol.
77%
$1,553 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$7,683 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$707 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$603 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$480 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$618 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$469 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a commanding 77% implied probability in this market, driven by its Claude Opus 5 and related models topping math-focused leaderboards on platforms like MathArena and arena.ai's text evaluations through mid-August 2026. Recent verified results include perfect scores on the 2026 IMO problems and an unreleased research version advancing the Riemann zeta function lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%, highlighting superior multi-step mathematical reasoning over competitors. OpenAI trails at 11.5% and Google at 12% amid strong but secondary showings on similar benchmarks, while lower-probability entrants reflect limited recent math-specific gains. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent edge in complex reasoning tasks heading into the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$25,294End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a commanding 77% implied probability in this market, driven by its Claude Opus 5 and related models topping math-focused leaderboards on platforms like MathArena and arena.ai's text evaluations through mid-August 2026. Recent verified results include perfect scores on the 2026 IMO problems and an unreleased research version advancing the Riemann zeta function lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%, highlighting superior multi-step mathematical reasoning over competitors. OpenAI trails at 11.5% and Google at 12% amid strong but secondary showings on similar benchmarks, while lower-probability entrants reflect limited recent math-specific gains. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent edge in complex reasoning tasks heading into the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,294End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 77% implied probability in this market, driven by its Claude Opus 5 and related models topping math-focused leaderboards on platforms like MathArena and arena.ai's text evaluations through mid-August 2026. Recent verified results include perfect scores on the 2026 IMO problems and an unreleased research version advancing the Riemann zeta function lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%, highlighting superior multi-step mathematical reasoning over competitors. OpenAI trails at 11.5% and Google at 12% amid strong but secondary showings on similar benchmarks, while lower-probability entrants reflect limited recent math-specific gains. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent edge in complex reasoning tasks heading into the September cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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