Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, as the model currently leads key independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63 and Agentic Index at 55.3 while claiming top spots on Arena coding boards. This positioning reflects the model's demonstrated gains in reasoning, agentic workflows, and real-world coding tasks relative to competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini variants. With only two weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution, a late surprise update from xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh or another frontier lab could still shift outcomes if it delivers measurable benchmark gains before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 96%
OpenAI 3.3%
Google 1.4%
SpaceXAI <1%
$1,656,384 Vol.
$1,656,384 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
3%
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96%
OpenAI 3.3%
Google 1.4%
SpaceXAI <1%
$1,656,384 Vol.
$1,656,384 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$349,629 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$146,015 Vol.
3%
$127,453 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$135,808 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$139,200 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$131,032 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$125,347 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$192,601 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$107,002 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$88,729 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, as the model currently leads key independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63 and Agentic Index at 55.3 while claiming top spots on Arena coding boards. This positioning reflects the model's demonstrated gains in reasoning, agentic workflows, and real-world coding tasks relative to competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini variants. With only two weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution, a late surprise update from xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh or another frontier lab could still shift outcomes if it delivers measurable benchmark gains before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,656,384End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, as the model currently leads key independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63 and Agentic Index at 55.3 while claiming top spots on Arena coding boards. This positioning reflects the model's demonstrated gains in reasoning, agentic workflows, and real-world coding tasks relative to competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini variants. With only two weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution, a late surprise update from xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh or another frontier lab could still shift outcomes if it delivers measurable benchmark gains before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,656,384End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has anchored trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, as the model currently leads key independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63 and Agentic Index at 55.3 while claiming top spots on Arena coding boards. This positioning reflects the model's demonstrated gains in reasoning, agentic workflows, and real-world coding tasks relative to competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini variants. With only two weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution, a late surprise update from xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh or another frontier lab could still shift outcomes if it delivers measurable benchmark gains before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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