Recent polling shows Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a narrowing lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing coalition and its Sweden Democrats support ahead of the September 13 election. Gaps that reached 9-10 points in midsummer have tightened to 3-5 points in late August and early September surveys from Ipsos, Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion, with the Liberals recently clearing the 4% threshold in some readings. Campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, security, and energy has driven late shifts, while neither bloc consistently projects a clear parliamentary majority. These trends support trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on a modest left-leaning margin of victory, with substantial weight on outcomes between 4% and 10%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedS 4-7% 41%
S 7-10% 39%
S 10-13% 30%
S 13%+ 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
S <4%
15%
S 4-7%
41%
S 7-10%
39%
S 10-13%
30%
S 13%+
25%
Another Party Wins
24%
S 4-7% 41%
S 7-10% 39%
S 10-13% 30%
S 13%+ 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
S <4%
$160 Vol.
15%
S 4-7%
$0 Vol.
41%
S 7-10%
$0 Vol.
39%
S 10-13%
$0 Vol.
30%
S 13%+
$0 Vol.
25%
Another Party Wins
$0 Vol.
24%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling shows Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a narrowing lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing coalition and its Sweden Democrats support ahead of the September 13 election. Gaps that reached 9-10 points in midsummer have tightened to 3-5 points in late August and early September surveys from Ipsos, Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion, with the Liberals recently clearing the 4% threshold in some readings. Campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, security, and energy has driven late shifts, while neither bloc consistently projects a clear parliamentary majority. These trends support trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on a modest left-leaning margin of victory, with substantial weight on outcomes between 4% and 10%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$160End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling shows Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a narrowing lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing coalition and its Sweden Democrats support ahead of the September 13 election. Gaps that reached 9-10 points in midsummer have tightened to 3-5 points in late August and early September surveys from Ipsos, Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion, with the Liberals recently clearing the 4% threshold in some readings. Campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, security, and energy has driven late shifts, while neither bloc consistently projects a clear parliamentary majority. These trends support trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on a modest left-leaning margin of victory, with substantial weight on outcomes between 4% and 10%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$160End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc, led by the Social Democrats, holding a narrowing lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing coalition and its Sweden Democrats support ahead of the September 13 election. Gaps that reached 9-10 points in midsummer have tightened to 3-5 points in late August and early September surveys from Ipsos, Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion, with the Liberals recently clearing the 4% threshold in some readings. Campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, security, and energy has driven late shifts, while neither bloc consistently projects a clear parliamentary majority. These trends support trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on a modest left-leaning margin of victory, with substantial weight on outcomes between 4% and 10%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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