Recent Israeli polls place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly seven Knesset seats, or near the 6% vote-share threshold, amid a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election. Shas released its candidate list on September 8 featuring Deri at the top, a promoted faction chair, and a reserve lieutenant colonel in the sixth spot, following internal rabbinical council input. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across the 6-9% bins because polling averages fluctuate with undecided voters, Haredi turnout rates, competition from United Torah Judaism, and potential threshold effects from smaller right-wing lists. Block dynamics between pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps add further variability to smaller-party outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<6% 44%
6-7% 44%
7-8% 44%
8-9% 44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
44%
6-7%
44%
7-8%
44%
8-9%
44%
9%+
43%
<6% 44%
6-7% 44%
7-8% 44%
8-9% 44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
$0 Vol.
44%
6-7%
$0 Vol.
44%
7-8%
$0 Vol.
44%
8-9%
$0 Vol.
44%
9%+
$0 Vol.
43%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent Israeli polls place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly seven Knesset seats, or near the 6% vote-share threshold, amid a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election. Shas released its candidate list on September 8 featuring Deri at the top, a promoted faction chair, and a reserve lieutenant colonel in the sixth spot, following internal rabbinical council input. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across the 6-9% bins because polling averages fluctuate with undecided voters, Haredi turnout rates, competition from United Torah Judaism, and potential threshold effects from smaller right-wing lists. Block dynamics between pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps add further variability to smaller-party outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent Israeli polls place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly seven Knesset seats, or near the 6% vote-share threshold, amid a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election. Shas released its candidate list on September 8 featuring Deri at the top, a promoted faction chair, and a reserve lieutenant colonel in the sixth spot, following internal rabbinical council input. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across the 6-9% bins because polling averages fluctuate with undecided voters, Haredi turnout rates, competition from United Torah Judaism, and potential threshold effects from smaller right-wing lists. Block dynamics between pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps add further variability to smaller-party outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Israeli polls place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly seven Knesset seats, or near the 6% vote-share threshold, amid a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election. Shas released its candidate list on September 8 featuring Deri at the top, a promoted faction chair, and a reserve lieutenant colonel in the sixth spot, following internal rabbinical council input. Trader odds remain tightly clustered across the 6-9% bins because polling averages fluctuate with undecided voters, Haredi turnout rates, competition from United Torah Judaism, and potential threshold effects from smaller right-wing lists. Block dynamics between pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps add further variability to smaller-party outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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