Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, consistently below the 3.25% electoral threshold at around 1-1.3%, reflecting voter migration toward larger opposition lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together. Gantz submitted a full slate on September 8 despite repeated calls for merger or withdrawal to avoid splitting the centrist vote, while talks with parties like Unity and the Reservists produced no broad alliance. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters near 10-11% and bloc competition, underpins trader consensus favoring a modest 2-3.25% outcome as the most probable range before election-day turnout and last-minute shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<0.75% 45%
0.75-1.25% 44%
2-3.25% 44%
1.25-2% 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<0.75%
45%
0.75-1.25%
44%
1.25-2%
26%
2-3.25%
44%
3.25%+
25%
<0.75% 45%
0.75-1.25% 44%
2-3.25% 44%
1.25-2% 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<0.75%
$0 Vol.
45%
0.75-1.25%
$0 Vol.
44%
1.25-2%
$0 Vol.
26%
2-3.25%
$0 Vol.
44%
3.25%+
$0 Vol.
25%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, consistently below the 3.25% electoral threshold at around 1-1.3%, reflecting voter migration toward larger opposition lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together. Gantz submitted a full slate on September 8 despite repeated calls for merger or withdrawal to avoid splitting the centrist vote, while talks with parties like Unity and the Reservists produced no broad alliance. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters near 10-11% and bloc competition, underpins trader consensus favoring a modest 2-3.25% outcome as the most probable range before election-day turnout and last-minute shifts.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, consistently below the 3.25% electoral threshold at around 1-1.3%, reflecting voter migration toward larger opposition lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together. Gantz submitted a full slate on September 8 despite repeated calls for merger or withdrawal to avoid splitting the centrist vote, while talks with parties like Unity and the Reservists produced no broad alliance. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters near 10-11% and bloc competition, underpins trader consensus favoring a modest 2-3.25% outcome as the most probable range before election-day turnout and last-minute shifts.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, consistently below the 3.25% electoral threshold at around 1-1.3%, reflecting voter migration toward larger opposition lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together. Gantz submitted a full slate on September 8 despite repeated calls for merger or withdrawal to avoid splitting the centrist vote, while talks with parties like Unity and the Reservists produced no broad alliance. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters near 10-11% and bloc competition, underpins trader consensus favoring a modest 2-3.25% outcome as the most probable range before election-day turnout and last-minute shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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