Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 6–9 projected seats amid right-wing bloc fragmentation and competition from Likud, Shas, and emerging lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut following the Smotrich-Feiglin merger. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and other threshold challengers have drawn support from overlapping voter bases, while undecided respondents hover near 11% and bloc totals remain fluid. These dynamics sustain tight market pricing between the 5.5–7.5% ranges, as traders weigh vote splitting against Otzma Yehudit’s targeted outreach to dissatisfied Likud and Shas supporters. Upcoming candidate list finalization, final pre-election surveys, and turnout patterns within the nationalist electorate could shift the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6.5-7.5% 46%
5.5-6.5% 45%
4.5-5.5% 45%
7.5%+ 42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
30%
4.5-5.5%
45%
5.5-6.5%
45%
6.5-7.5%
46%
7.5%+
42%
6.5-7.5% 46%
5.5-6.5% 45%
4.5-5.5% 45%
7.5%+ 42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$0 Vol.
30%
4.5-5.5%
$0 Vol.
45%
5.5-6.5%
$0 Vol.
45%
6.5-7.5%
$0 Vol.
46%
7.5%+
$0 Vol.
42%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 6–9 projected seats amid right-wing bloc fragmentation and competition from Likud, Shas, and emerging lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut following the Smotrich-Feiglin merger. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and other threshold challengers have drawn support from overlapping voter bases, while undecided respondents hover near 11% and bloc totals remain fluid. These dynamics sustain tight market pricing between the 5.5–7.5% ranges, as traders weigh vote splitting against Otzma Yehudit’s targeted outreach to dissatisfied Likud and Shas supporters. Upcoming candidate list finalization, final pre-election surveys, and turnout patterns within the nationalist electorate could shift the outcome before resolution.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 6–9 projected seats amid right-wing bloc fragmentation and competition from Likud, Shas, and emerging lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut following the Smotrich-Feiglin merger. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and other threshold challengers have drawn support from overlapping voter bases, while undecided respondents hover near 11% and bloc totals remain fluid. These dynamics sustain tight market pricing between the 5.5–7.5% ranges, as traders weigh vote splitting against Otzma Yehudit’s targeted outreach to dissatisfied Likud and Shas supporters. Upcoming candidate list finalization, final pre-election surveys, and turnout patterns within the nationalist electorate could shift the outcome before resolution.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 6–9 projected seats amid right-wing bloc fragmentation and competition from Likud, Shas, and emerging lists such as Religious Zionism-Zehut following the Smotrich-Feiglin merger. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and other threshold challengers have drawn support from overlapping voter bases, while undecided respondents hover near 11% and bloc totals remain fluid. These dynamics sustain tight market pricing between the 5.5–7.5% ranges, as traders weigh vote splitting against Otzma Yehudit’s targeted outreach to dissatisfied Likud and Shas supporters. Upcoming candidate list finalization, final pre-election surveys, and turnout patterns within the nationalist electorate could shift the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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