Recent polling for Israel's October 27 legislative election shows Yisrael Beiteinu projected at roughly 8–12 Knesset seats, placing its expected vote share near or above 7 percent amid a crowded field of new and established parties. Trader consensus favoring sub-6 percent outcomes appears driven by vote fragmentation from rising centrist lists such as Yashar and Together, plus uncertainty over turnout among the party's traditional secular and immigrant base. Avigdor Lieberman's early September slate unveiling, which stressed universal conscription and opposition to Haredi exemptions, has reinforced the party's distinct positioning but occurs against ongoing bloc realignments and last-minute list submissions. Further separation could result from final-week security developments, differential turnout in key demographics, or clearer signals on post-election coalition viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<5% 42%
5-6% 40%
6-7% 28%
7-8% 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
42%
5-6%
40%
6-7%
28%
7-8%
28%
8%+
27%
<5% 42%
5-6% 40%
6-7% 28%
7-8% 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
$0 Vol.
42%
5-6%
$0 Vol.
40%
6-7%
$0 Vol.
28%
7-8%
$0 Vol.
28%
8%+
$0 Vol.
27%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 legislative election shows Yisrael Beiteinu projected at roughly 8–12 Knesset seats, placing its expected vote share near or above 7 percent amid a crowded field of new and established parties. Trader consensus favoring sub-6 percent outcomes appears driven by vote fragmentation from rising centrist lists such as Yashar and Together, plus uncertainty over turnout among the party's traditional secular and immigrant base. Avigdor Lieberman's early September slate unveiling, which stressed universal conscription and opposition to Haredi exemptions, has reinforced the party's distinct positioning but occurs against ongoing bloc realignments and last-minute list submissions. Further separation could result from final-week security developments, differential turnout in key demographics, or clearer signals on post-election coalition viability.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 legislative election shows Yisrael Beiteinu projected at roughly 8–12 Knesset seats, placing its expected vote share near or above 7 percent amid a crowded field of new and established parties. Trader consensus favoring sub-6 percent outcomes appears driven by vote fragmentation from rising centrist lists such as Yashar and Together, plus uncertainty over turnout among the party's traditional secular and immigrant base. Avigdor Lieberman's early September slate unveiling, which stressed universal conscription and opposition to Haredi exemptions, has reinforced the party's distinct positioning but occurs against ongoing bloc realignments and last-minute list submissions. Further separation could result from final-week security developments, differential turnout in key demographics, or clearer signals on post-election coalition viability.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27 legislative election shows Yisrael Beiteinu projected at roughly 8–12 Knesset seats, placing its expected vote share near or above 7 percent amid a crowded field of new and established parties. Trader consensus favoring sub-6 percent outcomes appears driven by vote fragmentation from rising centrist lists such as Yashar and Together, plus uncertainty over turnout among the party's traditional secular and immigrant base. Avigdor Lieberman's early September slate unveiling, which stressed universal conscription and opposition to Haredi exemptions, has reinforced the party's distinct positioning but occurs against ongoing bloc realignments and last-minute list submissions. Further separation could result from final-week security developments, differential turnout in key demographics, or clearer signals on post-election coalition viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions