Recent polls project United Torah Judaism at 7-8 Knesset seats, placing its vote share near the 6-7% range amid a fluid national race where blocs remain closely balanced. Internal factional tensions, including last-minute efforts to form an independent partner list within the UTJ alliance ahead of candidate submissions, introduce uncertainty over unified voter mobilization and potential leakage to new Haredi entrants. Ongoing disputes over yeshiva student conscription and related budget priorities further complicate turnout and bloc alignment calculations. Trader probabilities cluster tightly across adjacent bins because these factors keep projected outcomes within a narrow band, with separation likely hinging on final list stability, Haredi voter participation rates, or late shifts in coalition signaling that alter perceived viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<5% 43%
5-6% 43%
6-7% 43%
8%+ 43%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
43%
5-6%
43%
6-7%
43%
7-8%
41%
8%+
43%
<5% 43%
5-6% 43%
6-7% 43%
8%+ 43%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
$0 Vol.
43%
5-6%
$0 Vol.
43%
6-7%
$0 Vol.
43%
7-8%
$0 Vol.
41%
8%+
$0 Vol.
43%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls project United Torah Judaism at 7-8 Knesset seats, placing its vote share near the 6-7% range amid a fluid national race where blocs remain closely balanced. Internal factional tensions, including last-minute efforts to form an independent partner list within the UTJ alliance ahead of candidate submissions, introduce uncertainty over unified voter mobilization and potential leakage to new Haredi entrants. Ongoing disputes over yeshiva student conscription and related budget priorities further complicate turnout and bloc alignment calculations. Trader probabilities cluster tightly across adjacent bins because these factors keep projected outcomes within a narrow band, with separation likely hinging on final list stability, Haredi voter participation rates, or late shifts in coalition signaling that alter perceived viability.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls project United Torah Judaism at 7-8 Knesset seats, placing its vote share near the 6-7% range amid a fluid national race where blocs remain closely balanced. Internal factional tensions, including last-minute efforts to form an independent partner list within the UTJ alliance ahead of candidate submissions, introduce uncertainty over unified voter mobilization and potential leakage to new Haredi entrants. Ongoing disputes over yeshiva student conscription and related budget priorities further complicate turnout and bloc alignment calculations. Trader probabilities cluster tightly across adjacent bins because these factors keep projected outcomes within a narrow band, with separation likely hinging on final list stability, Haredi voter participation rates, or late shifts in coalition signaling that alter perceived viability.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls project United Torah Judaism at 7-8 Knesset seats, placing its vote share near the 6-7% range amid a fluid national race where blocs remain closely balanced. Internal factional tensions, including last-minute efforts to form an independent partner list within the UTJ alliance ahead of candidate submissions, introduce uncertainty over unified voter mobilization and potential leakage to new Haredi entrants. Ongoing disputes over yeshiva student conscription and related budget priorities further complicate turnout and bloc alignment calculations. Trader probabilities cluster tightly across adjacent bins because these factors keep projected outcomes within a narrow band, with separation likely hinging on final list stability, Haredi voter participation rates, or late shifts in coalition signaling that alter perceived viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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