Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, at 4–5 seats in most surveys, aligning with the leading 4–4.75% vote-share outcome priced at 44%. This positioning reflects consistent Arab-sector turnout patterns and competition from other Arab lists such as Hadash-Ta'al, which together hold roughly 11–12 seats across projections. Discussions around former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz joining the slate have prompted some upward scenarios toward 5.5%+, yet most recent aggregates show limited immediate lift. Traders appear to weigh these factors against broader bloc dynamics, where Ra'am's potential role as a coalition partner hinges on crossing the 3.25% threshold without major late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.5%+ 45%
4-4.75% 43%
<3.25% 43%
4.75-5.5% 42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
43%
3.25-4%
41%
4-4.75%
43%
4.75-5.5%
42%
5.5%+
45%
5.5%+ 45%
4-4.75% 43%
<3.25% 43%
4.75-5.5% 42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
$0 Vol.
43%
3.25-4%
$0 Vol.
41%
4-4.75%
$0 Vol.
43%
4.75-5.5%
$0 Vol.
42%
5.5%+
$0 Vol.
45%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, at 4–5 seats in most surveys, aligning with the leading 4–4.75% vote-share outcome priced at 44%. This positioning reflects consistent Arab-sector turnout patterns and competition from other Arab lists such as Hadash-Ta'al, which together hold roughly 11–12 seats across projections. Discussions around former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz joining the slate have prompted some upward scenarios toward 5.5%+, yet most recent aggregates show limited immediate lift. Traders appear to weigh these factors against broader bloc dynamics, where Ra'am's potential role as a coalition partner hinges on crossing the 3.25% threshold without major late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, at 4–5 seats in most surveys, aligning with the leading 4–4.75% vote-share outcome priced at 44%. This positioning reflects consistent Arab-sector turnout patterns and competition from other Arab lists such as Hadash-Ta'al, which together hold roughly 11–12 seats across projections. Discussions around former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz joining the slate have prompted some upward scenarios toward 5.5%+, yet most recent aggregates show limited immediate lift. Traders appear to weigh these factors against broader bloc dynamics, where Ra'am's potential role as a coalition partner hinges on crossing the 3.25% threshold without major late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, at 4–5 seats in most surveys, aligning with the leading 4–4.75% vote-share outcome priced at 44%. This positioning reflects consistent Arab-sector turnout patterns and competition from other Arab lists such as Hadash-Ta'al, which together hold roughly 11–12 seats across projections. Discussions around former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz joining the slate have prompted some upward scenarios toward 5.5%+, yet most recent aggregates show limited immediate lift. Traders appear to weigh these factors against broader bloc dynamics, where Ra'am's potential role as a coalition partner hinges on crossing the 3.25% threshold without major late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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