Recent polling averages place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with support fluctuating near that of the Yashar party and other opposition groupings amid ongoing coalition challenges and voter shifts on security and domestic issues. Internal Likud primaries, rule changes for candidate inclusion, and departures by some MKs have contributed to uncertainty about the party's final list and appeal. The market's near-even split between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat bins reflects this polling volatility and the absence of decisive momentum for either the incumbent bloc or challengers. Late-cycle developments such as major security incidents, shifts in ultra-Orthodox draft policy, or clearer opposition coalition signals could widen the gap in either direction before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20-24 32%
25-29 32%
<20 19.8%
30-34 15%
$96,488 Vol.
$96,488 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
20%
20-24
32%
25-29
32%
30-34
15%
35+
5%
20-24 32%
25-29 32%
<20 19.8%
30-34 15%
$96,488 Vol.
$96,488 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
$32,621 Vol.
20%
20-24
$14,960 Vol.
32%
25-29
$23,708 Vol.
32%
30-34
$17,092 Vol.
15%
35+
$8,107 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with support fluctuating near that of the Yashar party and other opposition groupings amid ongoing coalition challenges and voter shifts on security and domestic issues. Internal Likud primaries, rule changes for candidate inclusion, and departures by some MKs have contributed to uncertainty about the party's final list and appeal. The market's near-even split between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat bins reflects this polling volatility and the absence of decisive momentum for either the incumbent bloc or challengers. Late-cycle developments such as major security incidents, shifts in ultra-Orthodox draft policy, or clearer opposition coalition signals could widen the gap in either direction before voting.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$96,488End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with support fluctuating near that of the Yashar party and other opposition groupings amid ongoing coalition challenges and voter shifts on security and domestic issues. Internal Likud primaries, rule changes for candidate inclusion, and departures by some MKs have contributed to uncertainty about the party's final list and appeal. The market's near-even split between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat bins reflects this polling volatility and the absence of decisive momentum for either the incumbent bloc or challengers. Late-cycle developments such as major security incidents, shifts in ultra-Orthodox draft policy, or clearer opposition coalition signals could widen the gap in either direction before voting.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$96,488End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with support fluctuating near that of the Yashar party and other opposition groupings amid ongoing coalition challenges and voter shifts on security and domestic issues. Internal Likud primaries, rule changes for candidate inclusion, and departures by some MKs have contributed to uncertainty about the party's final list and appeal. The market's near-even split between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat bins reflects this polling volatility and the absence of decisive momentum for either the incumbent bloc or challengers. Late-cycle developments such as major security incidents, shifts in ultra-Orthodox draft policy, or clearer opposition coalition signals could widen the gap in either direction before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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