Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 71.5% implied probability for second place in Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard by end of August, driven by the July 16 release of its Kimi K3 model. The 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight system quickly climbed to #2 overall on Arena.ai’s frontend coding and agentic WebDev evaluations, posting leading scores in blind human votes for HTML generation, multi-step UI workflows, and tool use while outperforming several closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI on cost-adjusted benchmarks. Its specialized Kimi Code variants and strong results on Terminal-Bench and SWE tasks have reinforced developer adoption, particularly among firms seeking high-performance coding at lower inference costs. With only two weeks remaining, limited new releases expected from competitors, and Kimi K3’s ongoing leaderboard momentum, traders view sustained second-place positioning as the most probable outcome absent a major surprise from frontier labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 71.5%
Alibaba 7.6%
Anthropic 8%
OpenAI 3.3%
$86,294 Vol.
$86,294 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
72%
Alibaba
8%
Anthropic
8%
OpenAI
3%
Z.ai
3%
DeepSeek
2%
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meta
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Moonshot 71.5%
Alibaba 7.6%
Anthropic 8%
OpenAI 3.3%
$86,294 Vol.
$86,294 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
$25,630 Vol.
72%
Alibaba
$4,908 Vol.
8%
Anthropic
$23,988 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$9,280 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$4,585 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$2,218 Vol.
2%
$2,156 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$4,438 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,732 Vol.
1%
Meta
$2,309 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$574 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$772 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$625 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,295 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$659 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 71.5% implied probability for second place in Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard by end of August, driven by the July 16 release of its Kimi K3 model. The 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight system quickly climbed to #2 overall on Arena.ai’s frontend coding and agentic WebDev evaluations, posting leading scores in blind human votes for HTML generation, multi-step UI workflows, and tool use while outperforming several closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI on cost-adjusted benchmarks. Its specialized Kimi Code variants and strong results on Terminal-Bench and SWE tasks have reinforced developer adoption, particularly among firms seeking high-performance coding at lower inference costs. With only two weeks remaining, limited new releases expected from competitors, and Kimi K3’s ongoing leaderboard momentum, traders view sustained second-place positioning as the most probable outcome absent a major surprise from frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$86,294End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 71.5% implied probability for second place in Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard by end of August, driven by the July 16 release of its Kimi K3 model. The 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight system quickly climbed to #2 overall on Arena.ai’s frontend coding and agentic WebDev evaluations, posting leading scores in blind human votes for HTML generation, multi-step UI workflows, and tool use while outperforming several closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI on cost-adjusted benchmarks. Its specialized Kimi Code variants and strong results on Terminal-Bench and SWE tasks have reinforced developer adoption, particularly among firms seeking high-performance coding at lower inference costs. With only two weeks remaining, limited new releases expected from competitors, and Kimi K3’s ongoing leaderboard momentum, traders view sustained second-place positioning as the most probable outcome absent a major surprise from frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$86,294End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot leads trader sentiment at 71.5% implied probability for second place in Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard by end of August, driven by the July 16 release of its Kimi K3 model. The 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight system quickly climbed to #2 overall on Arena.ai’s frontend coding and agentic WebDev evaluations, posting leading scores in blind human votes for HTML generation, multi-step UI workflows, and tool use while outperforming several closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI on cost-adjusted benchmarks. Its specialized Kimi Code variants and strong results on Terminal-Bench and SWE tasks have reinforced developer adoption, particularly among firms seeking high-performance coding at lower inference costs. With only two weeks remaining, limited new releases expected from competitors, and Kimi K3’s ongoing leaderboard momentum, traders view sustained second-place positioning as the most probable outcome absent a major surprise from frontier labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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