Moonshot AI holds the strongest implied probability at 70% for second place behind a likely leader like DeepSeek on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at end-September, driven by its Kimi K3 model's July 2026 release. This 2.8-trillion-parameter open-source system achieved top-10 global rankings on platforms like LMArena, competitive performance with leading U.S. models on reasoning and coding benchmarks, and rapid user adoption that briefly overwhelmed capacity. Earlier Kimi iterations and ongoing enterprise backing reinforce its positioning among the "AI tigers," while Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu GLM, and ByteDance Doubao remain close alternatives per mid-2026 evaluations. With resolution tied to live leaderboard data on September 30, any late model updates or ranking shifts could influence final trader consensus in this competitive large language model landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 70%
Z.ai 12%
Alibaba 3.8%
DeepSeek 3.7%
$31,341 Vol.
$31,341 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
70%
Z.ai
12%
Alibaba
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Baidu
3%
MiniMax
2%
ByteDance
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 70%
Z.ai 12%
Alibaba 3.8%
DeepSeek 3.7%
$31,341 Vol.
$31,341 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$15,628 Vol.
70%
Z.ai
$3,817 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$2,177 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$1,337 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$1,344 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$1,422 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$1,274 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,687 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$946 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$878 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$832 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI holds the strongest implied probability at 70% for second place behind a likely leader like DeepSeek on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at end-September, driven by its Kimi K3 model's July 2026 release. This 2.8-trillion-parameter open-source system achieved top-10 global rankings on platforms like LMArena, competitive performance with leading U.S. models on reasoning and coding benchmarks, and rapid user adoption that briefly overwhelmed capacity. Earlier Kimi iterations and ongoing enterprise backing reinforce its positioning among the "AI tigers," while Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu GLM, and ByteDance Doubao remain close alternatives per mid-2026 evaluations. With resolution tied to live leaderboard data on September 30, any late model updates or ranking shifts could influence final trader consensus in this competitive large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$31,341End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI holds the strongest implied probability at 70% for second place behind a likely leader like DeepSeek on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at end-September, driven by its Kimi K3 model's July 2026 release. This 2.8-trillion-parameter open-source system achieved top-10 global rankings on platforms like LMArena, competitive performance with leading U.S. models on reasoning and coding benchmarks, and rapid user adoption that briefly overwhelmed capacity. Earlier Kimi iterations and ongoing enterprise backing reinforce its positioning among the "AI tigers," while Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu GLM, and ByteDance Doubao remain close alternatives per mid-2026 evaluations. With resolution tied to live leaderboard data on September 30, any late model updates or ranking shifts could influence final trader consensus in this competitive large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$31,341End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI holds the strongest implied probability at 70% for second place behind a likely leader like DeepSeek on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at end-September, driven by its Kimi K3 model's July 2026 release. This 2.8-trillion-parameter open-source system achieved top-10 global rankings on platforms like LMArena, competitive performance with leading U.S. models on reasoning and coding benchmarks, and rapid user adoption that briefly overwhelmed capacity. Earlier Kimi iterations and ongoing enterprise backing reinforce its positioning among the "AI tigers," while Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu GLM, and ByteDance Doubao remain close alternatives per mid-2026 evaluations. With resolution tied to live leaderboard data on September 30, any late model updates or ranking shifts could influence final trader consensus in this competitive large language model landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions