Houthis seized Perim Island (Mayun) on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mokha and Dhubab, completing Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait’s narrowest point. This advance, backed by Iranian support amid broader US-Iran tensions and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, positions the group to monitor or threaten Red Sea shipping lanes carrying significant global trade and Saudi oil exports. Trader consensus reflects limited immediate counteroffensives, Houthi consolidation of surrounding territory and islands like Zuqar, and the defensive advantages of coastal dominance, though analysts note long-term vulnerability to major amphibious or aerial operations. No major reversal operations have been confirmed through mid-September, with diplomatic and military responses still developing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,383 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
13%
December 31
27%
$11,383 Vol.
September 30
$1,750 Vol.
2%
October 31
$6,109 Vol.
13%
December 31
$3,524 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Houthis seized Perim Island (Mayun) on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mokha and Dhubab, completing Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait’s narrowest point. This advance, backed by Iranian support amid broader US-Iran tensions and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, positions the group to monitor or threaten Red Sea shipping lanes carrying significant global trade and Saudi oil exports. Trader consensus reflects limited immediate counteroffensives, Houthi consolidation of surrounding territory and islands like Zuqar, and the defensive advantages of coastal dominance, though analysts note long-term vulnerability to major amphibious or aerial operations. No major reversal operations have been confirmed through mid-September, with diplomatic and military responses still developing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Volume
$11,383End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Houthis seized Perim Island (Mayun) on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mokha and Dhubab, completing Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait’s narrowest point. This advance, backed by Iranian support amid broader US-Iran tensions and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, positions the group to monitor or threaten Red Sea shipping lanes carrying significant global trade and Saudi oil exports. Trader consensus reflects limited immediate counteroffensives, Houthi consolidation of surrounding territory and islands like Zuqar, and the defensive advantages of coastal dominance, though analysts note long-term vulnerability to major amphibious or aerial operations. No major reversal operations have been confirmed through mid-September, with diplomatic and military responses still developing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,383End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Houthis seized Perim Island (Mayun) on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mokha and Dhubab, completing Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait’s narrowest point. This advance, backed by Iranian support amid broader US-Iran tensions and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, positions the group to monitor or threaten Red Sea shipping lanes carrying significant global trade and Saudi oil exports. Trader consensus reflects limited immediate counteroffensives, Houthi consolidation of surrounding territory and islands like Zuqar, and the defensive advantages of coastal dominance, though analysts note long-term vulnerability to major amphibious or aerial operations. No major reversal operations have been confirmed through mid-September, with diplomatic and military responses still developing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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