Ongoing US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, including Iranian efforts to assert de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz through island-based checkpoints, vessel attacks, and routing requirements, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran maintains military assets and IRGC presence on the island amid repeated shipping disruptions, while a brief April ceasefire and June MOU on safe passage gave way to renewed attacks and a US naval blockade reimposed in early August. Negotiations over strait administration involving Oman and Gulf states, alongside potential further US or coalition actions to secure transit lanes, represent key variables that could alter control dynamics before any resolution date. The situation remains fluid given competing claims of influence and the strategic value of islands like Hormuz for missile and surveillance capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$61,395 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$61,395 Vol.
August 31
$49,658 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, including Iranian efforts to assert de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz through island-based checkpoints, vessel attacks, and routing requirements, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran maintains military assets and IRGC presence on the island amid repeated shipping disruptions, while a brief April ceasefire and June MOU on safe passage gave way to renewed attacks and a US naval blockade reimposed in early August. Negotiations over strait administration involving Oman and Gulf states, alongside potential further US or coalition actions to secure transit lanes, represent key variables that could alter control dynamics before any resolution date. The situation remains fluid given competing claims of influence and the strategic value of islands like Hormuz for missile and surveillance capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$61,395End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, including Iranian efforts to assert de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz through island-based checkpoints, vessel attacks, and routing requirements, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran maintains military assets and IRGC presence on the island amid repeated shipping disruptions, while a brief April ceasefire and June MOU on safe passage gave way to renewed attacks and a US naval blockade reimposed in early August. Negotiations over strait administration involving Oman and Gulf states, alongside potential further US or coalition actions to secure transit lanes, represent key variables that could alter control dynamics before any resolution date. The situation remains fluid given competing claims of influence and the strategic value of islands like Hormuz for missile and surveillance capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,395End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, including Iranian efforts to assert de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz through island-based checkpoints, vessel attacks, and routing requirements, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran maintains military assets and IRGC presence on the island amid repeated shipping disruptions, while a brief April ceasefire and June MOU on safe passage gave way to renewed attacks and a US naval blockade reimposed in early August. Negotiations over strait administration involving Oman and Gulf states, alongside potential further US or coalition actions to secure transit lanes, represent key variables that could alter control dynamics before any resolution date. The situation remains fluid given competing claims of influence and the strategic value of islands like Hormuz for missile and surveillance capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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