Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade in the Persian Gulf have elevated risks to Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments and a loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Operations at the island halted in late July 2026 amid empty berths and no tanker loadings, compounding the Strait of Hormuz disruption that normally routes about 20% of global oil supplies. This has driven sharp increases in energy price volatility, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and reinforced risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Traders monitor potential escalation thresholds, including further strikes on infrastructure or shifts in control over key Persian Gulf islands, alongside any de-escalation signals that could ease supply constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,137 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,137 Vol.
August 31
$23,390 Vol.
1%
September 30
$67,747 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade in the Persian Gulf have elevated risks to Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments and a loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Operations at the island halted in late July 2026 amid empty berths and no tanker loadings, compounding the Strait of Hormuz disruption that normally routes about 20% of global oil supplies. This has driven sharp increases in energy price volatility, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and reinforced risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Traders monitor potential escalation thresholds, including further strikes on infrastructure or shifts in control over key Persian Gulf islands, alongside any de-escalation signals that could ease supply constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$91,137End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade in the Persian Gulf have elevated risks to Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments and a loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Operations at the island halted in late July 2026 amid empty berths and no tanker loadings, compounding the Strait of Hormuz disruption that normally routes about 20% of global oil supplies. This has driven sharp increases in energy price volatility, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and reinforced risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Traders monitor potential escalation thresholds, including further strikes on infrastructure or shifts in control over key Persian Gulf islands, alongside any de-escalation signals that could ease supply constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$91,137End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade in the Persian Gulf have elevated risks to Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments and a loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Operations at the island halted in late July 2026 amid empty berths and no tanker loadings, compounding the Strait of Hormuz disruption that normally routes about 20% of global oil supplies. This has driven sharp increases in energy price volatility, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and reinforced risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Traders monitor potential escalation thresholds, including further strikes on infrastructure or shifts in control over key Persian Gulf islands, alongside any de-escalation signals that could ease supply constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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