Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including a prolonged US-Iran standoff and active maritime threats, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–125 daily transits. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring most operators, while recent incidents such as drone strikes on an LPG carrier on September 20 and a crude tanker on September 21 have reinforced caution. Independent trackers including IMF PortWatch and Kpler report daily AIS-visible crossings in the low single digits through mid-September, with 7-day averages near 3–5, implying a weekly total clustered in the low 20s. Market-implied odds of 47.5% for 20–24 transits reflect trader consensus on these persistent barriers, though some US-facilitated or dark-ship movements and limited Saudi crude rerouting via the strait amid East-West pipeline disruptions introduce modest upside variance. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in sanctions enforcement or de-escalation signals that could influence the final weekly tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21?
20-24 49%
40+ 26%
<20 25%
25-29 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<20
31%
20-24
50%
25-29
16%
30-34
15%
35-39
13%
40+
26%
20-24 49%
40+ 26%
<20 25%
25-29 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<20
$25 Vol.
31%
20-24
$60 Vol.
50%
25-29
$20 Vol.
16%
30-34
$20 Vol.
15%
35-39
$20 Vol.
13%
40+
$40 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including a prolonged US-Iran standoff and active maritime threats, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–125 daily transits. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring most operators, while recent incidents such as drone strikes on an LPG carrier on September 20 and a crude tanker on September 21 have reinforced caution. Independent trackers including IMF PortWatch and Kpler report daily AIS-visible crossings in the low single digits through mid-September, with 7-day averages near 3–5, implying a weekly total clustered in the low 20s. Market-implied odds of 47.5% for 20–24 transits reflect trader consensus on these persistent barriers, though some US-facilitated or dark-ship movements and limited Saudi crude rerouting via the strait amid East-West pipeline disruptions introduce modest upside variance. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in sanctions enforcement or de-escalation signals that could influence the final weekly tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$186End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including a prolonged US-Iran standoff and active maritime threats, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–125 daily transits. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring most operators, while recent incidents such as drone strikes on an LPG carrier on September 20 and a crude tanker on September 21 have reinforced caution. Independent trackers including IMF PortWatch and Kpler report daily AIS-visible crossings in the low single digits through mid-September, with 7-day averages near 3–5, implying a weekly total clustered in the low 20s. Market-implied odds of 47.5% for 20–24 transits reflect trader consensus on these persistent barriers, though some US-facilitated or dark-ship movements and limited Saudi crude rerouting via the strait amid East-West pipeline disruptions introduce modest upside variance. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in sanctions enforcement or de-escalation signals that could influence the final weekly tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$186End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including a prolonged US-Iran standoff and active maritime threats, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–125 daily transits. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring most operators, while recent incidents such as drone strikes on an LPG carrier on September 20 and a crude tanker on September 21 have reinforced caution. Independent trackers including IMF PortWatch and Kpler report daily AIS-visible crossings in the low single digits through mid-September, with 7-day averages near 3–5, implying a weekly total clustered in the low 20s. Market-implied odds of 47.5% for 20–24 transits reflect trader consensus on these persistent barriers, though some US-facilitated or dark-ship movements and limited Saudi crude rerouting via the strait amid East-West pipeline disruptions introduce modest upside variance. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in sanctions enforcement or de-escalation signals that could influence the final weekly tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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