Persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent tanker attacks and stalled diplomacy at the UN, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily volumes in the low single digits to low teens as of mid-to-late September 2026 versus the pre-conflict baseline near 125 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, AIS-dark sailings, and reliance on alternatives such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have reinforced trader expectations for constrained throughput. Market-implied odds favoring 25–34 total ships the week of September 28 reflect this environment of elevated risk and limited recovery, while acknowledging that any short-term de-escalation or eased routing restrictions could lift counts toward the upper end of that range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
30-34 52%
20-24 25%
25-29 22%
35-39 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<20
14%
20-24
20%
25-29
37%
30-34
52%
35-39
14%
40+
13%
30-34 52%
20-24 25%
25-29 22%
35-39 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<20
$27 Vol.
14%
20-24
$20 Vol.
20%
25-29
$20 Vol.
37%
30-34
$20 Vol.
52%
35-39
$25 Vol.
14%
40+
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent tanker attacks and stalled diplomacy at the UN, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily volumes in the low single digits to low teens as of mid-to-late September 2026 versus the pre-conflict baseline near 125 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, AIS-dark sailings, and reliance on alternatives such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have reinforced trader expectations for constrained throughput. Market-implied odds favoring 25–34 total ships the week of September 28 reflect this environment of elevated risk and limited recovery, while acknowledging that any short-term de-escalation or eased routing restrictions could lift counts toward the upper end of that range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$112End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent tanker attacks and stalled diplomacy at the UN, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily volumes in the low single digits to low teens as of mid-to-late September 2026 versus the pre-conflict baseline near 125 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, AIS-dark sailings, and reliance on alternatives such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have reinforced trader expectations for constrained throughput. Market-implied odds favoring 25–34 total ships the week of September 28 reflect this environment of elevated risk and limited recovery, while acknowledging that any short-term de-escalation or eased routing restrictions could lift counts toward the upper end of that range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$112End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including recent tanker attacks and stalled diplomacy at the UN, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily volumes in the low single digits to low teens as of mid-to-late September 2026 versus the pre-conflict baseline near 125 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, AIS-dark sailings, and reliance on alternatives such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have reinforced trader expectations for constrained throughput. Market-implied odds favoring 25–34 total ships the week of September 28 reflect this environment of elevated risk and limited recovery, while acknowledging that any short-term de-escalation or eased routing restrictions could lift counts toward the upper end of that range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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