Recent Houthi seizures of Yemen’s full Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving selective enforcement of the July Saudi-linked shipping blockade and pushing daily transits down to the low-to-mid 20s from earlier 2026 averages near 25–26. This has compressed weekly volumes toward the 150–180 range amid elevated war-risk premiums near 1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Major lines including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM continue partial Suez restorations, supporting modest stabilization, yet ongoing territorial leverage and potential enforcement actions create volatility around the 170–189 bucket. The closely matched odds between 170–189 and sub-170 reflect uncertainty over whether traffic holds near recent levels or dips further before the week of September 28 resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?
<170 23%
190-209 14%
170-189 14%
210-229 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<170
23%
170-189
14%
190-209
14%
210-229
14%
230+
14%
<170 23%
190-209 14%
170-189 14%
210-229 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<170
$0 Vol.
23%
170-189
$0 Vol.
14%
190-209
$0 Vol.
14%
210-229
$0 Vol.
14%
230+
$21 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Yemen’s full Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving selective enforcement of the July Saudi-linked shipping blockade and pushing daily transits down to the low-to-mid 20s from earlier 2026 averages near 25–26. This has compressed weekly volumes toward the 150–180 range amid elevated war-risk premiums near 1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Major lines including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM continue partial Suez restorations, supporting modest stabilization, yet ongoing territorial leverage and potential enforcement actions create volatility around the 170–189 bucket. The closely matched odds between 170–189 and sub-170 reflect uncertainty over whether traffic holds near recent levels or dips further before the week of September 28 resolves.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$21End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Yemen’s full Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving selective enforcement of the July Saudi-linked shipping blockade and pushing daily transits down to the low-to-mid 20s from earlier 2026 averages near 25–26. This has compressed weekly volumes toward the 150–180 range amid elevated war-risk premiums near 1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Major lines including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM continue partial Suez restorations, supporting modest stabilization, yet ongoing territorial leverage and potential enforcement actions create volatility around the 170–189 bucket. The closely matched odds between 170–189 and sub-170 reflect uncertainty over whether traffic holds near recent levels or dips further before the week of September 28 resolves.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$21End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Yemen’s full Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving selective enforcement of the July Saudi-linked shipping blockade and pushing daily transits down to the low-to-mid 20s from earlier 2026 averages near 25–26. This has compressed weekly volumes toward the 150–180 range amid elevated war-risk premiums near 1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Major lines including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM continue partial Suez restorations, supporting modest stabilization, yet ongoing territorial leverage and potential enforcement actions create volatility around the 170–189 bucket. The closely matched odds between 170–189 and sub-170 reflect uncertainty over whether traffic holds near recent levels or dips further before the week of September 28 resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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