Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, sustaining elevated war-risk premiums of 1–2% of hull value and prompting selective rerouting by carriers despite no formal closure. Weekly transits remain roughly 24–40% below 2023 baselines near 350–420 vessels, with recent daily commodity counts of 13–22 and tanker averages near 8 reflecting Saudi-linked avoidance and dark transits. Some Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd services have resumed Suez routings on select strings, supporting modest recovery, yet UN warnings and ongoing regional volatility create downside risk. These dynamics keep implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 170–230+ weekly bands, as traders weigh stabilization from selective enforcement against potential further diversions or escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?
230+ 26%
170-189 25%
210-229 14%
<170 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<170
56%
170-189
27%
190-209
57%
210-229
14%
230+
26%
230+ 26%
170-189 25%
210-229 14%
<170 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<170
$20 Vol.
56%
170-189
$20 Vol.
27%
190-209
$40 Vol.
57%
210-229
$0 Vol.
14%
230+
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, sustaining elevated war-risk premiums of 1–2% of hull value and prompting selective rerouting by carriers despite no formal closure. Weekly transits remain roughly 24–40% below 2023 baselines near 350–420 vessels, with recent daily commodity counts of 13–22 and tanker averages near 8 reflecting Saudi-linked avoidance and dark transits. Some Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd services have resumed Suez routings on select strings, supporting modest recovery, yet UN warnings and ongoing regional volatility create downside risk. These dynamics keep implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 170–230+ weekly bands, as traders weigh stabilization from selective enforcement against potential further diversions or escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$80End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, sustaining elevated war-risk premiums of 1–2% of hull value and prompting selective rerouting by carriers despite no formal closure. Weekly transits remain roughly 24–40% below 2023 baselines near 350–420 vessels, with recent daily commodity counts of 13–22 and tanker averages near 8 reflecting Saudi-linked avoidance and dark transits. Some Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd services have resumed Suez routings on select strings, supporting modest recovery, yet UN warnings and ongoing regional volatility create downside risk. These dynamics keep implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 170–230+ weekly bands, as traders weigh stabilization from selective enforcement against potential further diversions or escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$80End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Hanish islands, and Perim Island in mid-September have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, sustaining elevated war-risk premiums of 1–2% of hull value and prompting selective rerouting by carriers despite no formal closure. Weekly transits remain roughly 24–40% below 2023 baselines near 350–420 vessels, with recent daily commodity counts of 13–22 and tanker averages near 8 reflecting Saudi-linked avoidance and dark transits. Some Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd services have resumed Suez routings on select strings, supporting modest recovery, yet UN warnings and ongoing regional volatility create downside risk. These dynamics keep implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 170–230+ weekly bands, as traders weigh stabilization from selective enforcement against potential further diversions or escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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