The Ontario Liberal leadership contest stays tightly balanced ahead of ranked-choice voting by party members from November 9–20, with results due November 21. Navdeep Bains maintains a modest edge through superior fundraising and federal cabinet experience, yet MPPs Lee Fairclough and Stephanie Bowman draw on caucus networks and local profiles, while Dylan Marando and Eric Lombardi target specific voter segments on housing and policy. Recent debates, endorsement drives including from former premier Kathleen Wynne, and post-September 7 membership pushes have not produced decisive separation. Further candidate forums, turnout patterns among new members, and any late endorsements could shift momentum before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNavdeep Bains 47%
Lee Fairclough 40%
Dylan Marando 13.8%
Stephanie Bowman 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Navdeep Bains
47%
Lee Fairclough
39%
Dylan Marando
14%
Stephanie Bowman
11%
Eric Lombardi
2%
Navdeep Bains 47%
Lee Fairclough 40%
Dylan Marando 13.8%
Stephanie Bowman 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Navdeep Bains
$3,678 Vol.
47%
Lee Fairclough
$1,629 Vol.
39%
Dylan Marando
$221 Vol.
14%
Stephanie Bowman
$299 Vol.
11%
Eric Lombardi
$262 Vol.
2%
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.The Ontario Liberal leadership contest stays tightly balanced ahead of ranked-choice voting by party members from November 9–20, with results due November 21. Navdeep Bains maintains a modest edge through superior fundraising and federal cabinet experience, yet MPPs Lee Fairclough and Stephanie Bowman draw on caucus networks and local profiles, while Dylan Marando and Eric Lombardi target specific voter segments on housing and policy. Recent debates, endorsement drives including from former premier Kathleen Wynne, and post-September 7 membership pushes have not produced decisive separation. Further candidate forums, turnout patterns among new members, and any late endorsements could shift momentum before ballots close.
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Volume
$6,090End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.The Ontario Liberal leadership contest stays tightly balanced ahead of ranked-choice voting by party members from November 9–20, with results due November 21. Navdeep Bains maintains a modest edge through superior fundraising and federal cabinet experience, yet MPPs Lee Fairclough and Stephanie Bowman draw on caucus networks and local profiles, while Dylan Marando and Eric Lombardi target specific voter segments on housing and policy. Recent debates, endorsement drives including from former premier Kathleen Wynne, and post-September 7 membership pushes have not produced decisive separation. Further candidate forums, turnout patterns among new members, and any late endorsements could shift momentum before ballots close.
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Volume
$6,090End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ontario Liberal leadership contest stays tightly balanced ahead of ranked-choice voting by party members from November 9–20, with results due November 21. Navdeep Bains maintains a modest edge through superior fundraising and federal cabinet experience, yet MPPs Lee Fairclough and Stephanie Bowman draw on caucus networks and local profiles, while Dylan Marando and Eric Lombardi target specific voter segments on housing and policy. Recent debates, endorsement drives including from former premier Kathleen Wynne, and post-September 7 membership pushes have not produced decisive separation. Further candidate forums, turnout patterns among new members, and any late endorsements could shift momentum before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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