Canada’s monthly GDP for July 2026 is scheduled for official release on September 29, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate already indicating essentially flat output. Gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services were offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3 percent increase in June. Broader Q2 data showed solid 0.8 percent quarterly expansion driven by exports and household spending, while July merchandise trade posted a narrower surplus amid falling exports. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1 percent reading at 55.5 percent, with a notable 41 percent probability assigned to contraction, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators and limited momentum into the third quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0 to 0.1% 55%
<0.0% 41%
0.2 to 0.3% 2.5%
0.8%+ <1%
$11,218 Vol.
$11,218 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<0.0%
41%
0.0 to 0.1%
55%
0.2 to 0.3%
3%
0.4 to 0.5%
1%
0.6 to 0.7%
<1%
0.8%+
1%
0.0 to 0.1% 55%
<0.0% 41%
0.2 to 0.3% 2.5%
0.8%+ <1%
$11,218 Vol.
$11,218 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<0.0%
$2,258 Vol.
41%
0.0 to 0.1%
$1,599 Vol.
55%
0.2 to 0.3%
$3,233 Vol.
3%
0.4 to 0.5%
$1,950 Vol.
1%
0.6 to 0.7%
$492 Vol.
<1%
0.8%+
$1,685 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s monthly GDP for July 2026 is scheduled for official release on September 29, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate already indicating essentially flat output. Gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services were offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3 percent increase in June. Broader Q2 data showed solid 0.8 percent quarterly expansion driven by exports and household spending, while July merchandise trade posted a narrower surplus amid falling exports. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1 percent reading at 55.5 percent, with a notable 41 percent probability assigned to contraction, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators and limited momentum into the third quarter.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,218End Date
Sep 29, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s monthly GDP for July 2026 is scheduled for official release on September 29, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate already indicating essentially flat output. Gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services were offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3 percent increase in June. Broader Q2 data showed solid 0.8 percent quarterly expansion driven by exports and household spending, while July merchandise trade posted a narrower surplus amid falling exports. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1 percent reading at 55.5 percent, with a notable 41 percent probability assigned to contraction, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators and limited momentum into the third quarter.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Volume
$11,218End Date
Sep 29, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Canada’s monthly GDP for July 2026 is scheduled for official release on September 29, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate already indicating essentially flat output. Gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services were offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3 percent increase in June. Broader Q2 data showed solid 0.8 percent quarterly expansion driven by exports and household spending, while July merchandise trade posted a narrower surplus amid falling exports. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1 percent reading at 55.5 percent, with a notable 41 percent probability assigned to contraction, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators and limited momentum into the third quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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