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icon for Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?
World·Canada

Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

icon for Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?
World·Canada

Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

PQ 20-29 29%

PQ 10-19 26%

PQ 30-39 23%

Another Party Wins 18%

Polymarket
NEW

PQ 20-29 29%

PQ 10-19 26%

PQ 30-39 23%

Another Party Wins 18%

Polymarket
NEW

PQ <10

$0 Vol.

14%

PQ 10-19

$25 Vol.

31%

PQ 20-29

$20 Vol.

31%

PQ 30-39

$26 Vol.

26%

PQ 40+

$0 Vol.

10%

Another Party Wins

$22 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a steady lead of 28-29% in popular support, driven by strong francophone backing, while the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives trail in the low-to-mid 20s or below. This positioning gives the PQ a clear edge in seat projections to claim the most seats in the 127-member National Assembly ahead of the October 5 vote, though models indicate a likely plurality rather than majority given the fragmented field and numerous competitive ridings. The CAQ's decline as incumbent and the rise of the Conservatives in certain regions have further shaped expectations around a PQ victory margin in the 10-30 seat range over the nearest rival. Advance polls begin September 27-28, with final voter shifts and regional turnout patterns remaining key variables that could influence the exact seat differential.

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.

The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.

If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”

If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$93
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a steady lead of 28-29% in popular support, driven by strong francophone backing, while the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives trail in the low-to-mid 20s or below. This positioning gives the PQ a clear edge in seat projections to claim the most seats in the 127-member National Assembly ahead of the October 5 vote, though models indicate a likely plurality rather than majority given the fragmented field and numerous competitive ridings. The CAQ's decline as incumbent and the rise of the Conservatives in certain regions have further shaped expectations around a PQ victory margin in the 10-30 seat range over the nearest rival. Advance polls begin September 27-28, with final voter shifts and regional turnout patterns remaining key variables that could influence the exact seat differential.

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.

The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.

If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”

If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$93
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "PQ 10-19" at 31%, followed by "PQ 20-29" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?" is "PQ 10-19" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "PQ 20-29" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.