**North Korea has conducted two distinct short-range ballistic missile test events in September 2026 so far—one on September 12 involving multiple launches during a joint firepower drill and another on September 20 firing two missiles hours apart from the Wonsan area.** These launches responded to U.S.-South Korea-Japan military exercises and came amid Pyongyang’s rejection of related UN resolutions. Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the September 20 tests, which state media described as demonstrating a new “ultra-modern” weapon system with hypersonic elements. With seven days remaining in the month and the U.S.-China summit scheduled for September 24, traders price in one additional test event as the most likely outcome. Historical patterns of clustered responses to diplomatic or military stimuli support the current consensus around three total tests, while the modest probability on four or more reflects uncertainty over whether further provocations or external triggers will prompt extra activity before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
3 46.0%
2 32%
4+ 19.9%
1 2.6%
$53,027 Vol.
$53,027 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
1
3%
2
32%
3
46%
4+
20%
3 46.0%
2 32%
4+ 19.9%
1 2.6%
$53,027 Vol.
$53,027 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
1
$14,956 Vol.
3%
2
$5,374 Vol.
32%
3
$3,492 Vol.
46%
4+
$5,897 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.**North Korea has conducted two distinct short-range ballistic missile test events in September 2026 so far—one on September 12 involving multiple launches during a joint firepower drill and another on September 20 firing two missiles hours apart from the Wonsan area.** These launches responded to U.S.-South Korea-Japan military exercises and came amid Pyongyang’s rejection of related UN resolutions. Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the September 20 tests, which state media described as demonstrating a new “ultra-modern” weapon system with hypersonic elements.
With seven days remaining in the month and the U.S.-China summit scheduled for September 24, traders price in one additional test event as the most likely outcome. Historical patterns of clustered responses to diplomatic or military stimuli support the current consensus around three total tests, while the modest probability on four or more reflects uncertainty over whether further provocations or external triggers will prompt extra activity before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$53,027End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.**North Korea has conducted two distinct short-range ballistic missile test events in September 2026 so far—one on September 12 involving multiple launches during a joint firepower drill and another on September 20 firing two missiles hours apart from the Wonsan area.** These launches responded to U.S.-South Korea-Japan military exercises and came amid Pyongyang’s rejection of related UN resolutions. Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the September 20 tests, which state media described as demonstrating a new “ultra-modern” weapon system with hypersonic elements.
With seven days remaining in the month and the U.S.-China summit scheduled for September 24, traders price in one additional test event as the most likely outcome. Historical patterns of clustered responses to diplomatic or military stimuli support the current consensus around three total tests, while the modest probability on four or more reflects uncertainty over whether further provocations or external triggers will prompt extra activity before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$53,027End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**North Korea has conducted two distinct short-range ballistic missile test events in September 2026 so far—one on September 12 involving multiple launches during a joint firepower drill and another on September 20 firing two missiles hours apart from the Wonsan area.** These launches responded to U.S.-South Korea-Japan military exercises and came amid Pyongyang’s rejection of related UN resolutions. Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the September 20 tests, which state media described as demonstrating a new “ultra-modern” weapon system with hypersonic elements. With seven days remaining in the month and the U.S.-China summit scheduled for September 24, traders price in one additional test event as the most likely outcome. Historical patterns of clustered responses to diplomatic or military stimuli support the current consensus around three total tests, while the modest probability on four or more reflects uncertainty over whether further provocations or external triggers will prompt extra activity before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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