Traders assign a 96% probability against Kim Jong Un visiting the United States in 2026 because no such trip has been scheduled or announced with only months remaining in the year, and longstanding diplomatic patterns favor neutral third-country venues. Recent statements from President Trump indicate interest in renewed personal engagement, potentially during a November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering, yet North Korean officials including Kim Yo-jong have cast doubt on active channels and reiterated demands for U.S. acceptance of Pyongyang’s nuclear status before any substantive talks. North Korea’s focus on military modernization, ties with Russia, and resistance to denuclearization preconditions further reduce the likelihood of a high-profile visit to Washington. Late-year breakthroughs remain theoretically possible but face steep logistical, political, and policy barriers.