Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series continues to anchor trader expectations for the next flagship K model. The Beijing-based lab released Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window—on July 16, 2026, followed by full weights on July 27. This built directly on the K2 (July 2025), K2.5 (early 2026), and subsequent K2.6/K2.7 variants, demonstrating consistent internal scaling of its Delta Attention architecture and Stable LatentMoE design. Benchmarks show K3 closing the gap with proprietary U.S. frontier systems from Anthropic and OpenAI on coding and reasoning tasks while undercutting them on cost, intensifying competition in the open-source segment alongside DeepSeek and Zhipu. No other lab has released or claimed a Kimi-branded model, and Moonshot's ongoing infrastructure open-sourcing plus upcoming developer integrations are likely to sustain its lead until the next internal release window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
93%
December 31, 2026
94%
$4,521 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$3,473 Vol.
93%
December 31, 2026
$1,047 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series continues to anchor trader expectations for the next flagship K model. The Beijing-based lab released Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window—on July 16, 2026, followed by full weights on July 27. This built directly on the K2 (July 2025), K2.5 (early 2026), and subsequent K2.6/K2.7 variants, demonstrating consistent internal scaling of its Delta Attention architecture and Stable LatentMoE design. Benchmarks show K3 closing the gap with proprietary U.S. frontier systems from Anthropic and OpenAI on coding and reasoning tasks while undercutting them on cost, intensifying competition in the open-source segment alongside DeepSeek and Zhipu. No other lab has released or claimed a Kimi-branded model, and Moonshot's ongoing infrastructure open-sourcing plus upcoming developer integrations are likely to sustain its lead until the next internal release window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,521End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series continues to anchor trader expectations for the next flagship K model. The Beijing-based lab released Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window—on July 16, 2026, followed by full weights on July 27. This built directly on the K2 (July 2025), K2.5 (early 2026), and subsequent K2.6/K2.7 variants, demonstrating consistent internal scaling of its Delta Attention architecture and Stable LatentMoE design. Benchmarks show K3 closing the gap with proprietary U.S. frontier systems from Anthropic and OpenAI on coding and reasoning tasks while undercutting them on cost, intensifying competition in the open-source segment alongside DeepSeek and Zhipu. No other lab has released or claimed a Kimi-branded model, and Moonshot's ongoing infrastructure open-sourcing plus upcoming developer integrations are likely to sustain its lead until the next internal release window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,521End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series continues to anchor trader expectations for the next flagship K model. The Beijing-based lab released Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts model with native vision and a 1-million-token context window—on July 16, 2026, followed by full weights on July 27. This built directly on the K2 (July 2025), K2.5 (early 2026), and subsequent K2.6/K2.7 variants, demonstrating consistent internal scaling of its Delta Attention architecture and Stable LatentMoE design. Benchmarks show K3 closing the gap with proprietary U.S. frontier systems from Anthropic and OpenAI on coding and reasoning tasks while undercutting them on cost, intensifying competition in the open-source segment alongside DeepSeek and Zhipu. No other lab has released or claimed a Kimi-branded model, and Moonshot's ongoing infrastructure open-sourcing plus upcoming developer integrations are likely to sustain its lead until the next internal release window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions